Browsing by Author "Martínez López, Beatriz"
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PublicationA Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain(BioMedCentral, 2012-08-30) Rodríguez Prieto, Víctor; Martínez López, Beatriz; Barasona, José Angel; Acevedo, Pelayo; Romero Martínez, Beatriz; Rodriguez Campos, Sabrina; Gortázar, Christian; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Vicente, JoaquínBACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success. PublicationA multi-analysis approach for space-time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: the example of FMD in Peru(Elsevier, 2014) Martínez López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Fernández Carrión, Eduardo; Perez, A.M.; Medel-Herrero, A.; Sánchez-Vízcaino Buendía, Fernando; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelThis study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of food animal diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI-II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV), connects outputs from mI-III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I-IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 73 (1–1164), 2,152 (1–13,250), 63 days (0–442), and US$1.2 million (1,072–9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (<4.5 km), but geolocation and type of index farm strongly influenced the extent and spatial patterns of an epidemic. The approach is intended to support decisions in the last phase of the FMD eradication program in Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru. PublicationA novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model(Elsevier, 2012) Martínez López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelA new, recently published, stochastic and spatial model for the evaluation of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) spread into Spain has been validated by using several methods. Internal validity, sensitivity analysis, validation using historical data, comparison with other models and experiments on data validity were used to evaluate the overall reliability and robustness of the model. More than 100 modifications in input data and parameters were evaluated. Outputs were obtained after 1000 iterations for each new scenario of the model. As a result, the model was shown to be robust, being the probability of infection by local spread, the time from infectious to clinical signs state, the probability of detection based on clinical signs at day t after detection of the index case outside the control and surveillance zones and the maximum number of farms to be depopulated at day t the parameters that more influence (>10% of change) on the magnitude and duration of the epidemic. The combination of a within- and between- farm spread model was also shown to give significantly different results than using a purely between-farm spread model. Methods and results presented here were intended to be useful to better understand and apply the model, to identify key parameters for which it will be critical to have good estimates and to provide better support for prevention and control of future CSFV outbreaks. PublicationA novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model(Elsevier Science, 2011-01-27) Martínez López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelA new stochastic and spatial model was developed to evaluate the potential spread of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) within- and between-farms, and considering the specific farm-to-farm contact network. Within-farm transmission was simulated using a modified SI model. Between-farm transmission was assumed to occur by direct contacts (i.e. animal movement) and indirect contacts (i.e. local spread, vehicle and person contacts) and considering the spatial location of farms. Control measures dictated by the European legislation (i.e. depopulation of infected farms, movement restriction, zoning, surveillance, contact tracing) were also implemented into the model. Model experimentation was performed using real data from Segovia, one of the provinces with highest density of pigs in Spain, and results were presented using the mean, 95% probability intervals [95% PI] and risk maps. The estimated mean [95% PI] number of infected, quarantined and depopulated farms were 3 [1,17], 23 [0,76] and 115 [0,318], respectively. The duration of the epidemic was 63 [26,177] days and the most important way of transmission was associated with local spread (61.4% of the infections). Results were consistent with the spread of previous CSFV introductions into the study region. The model and results presented here may be useful for the decision making process and for the improvement of the prevention and control programmes for CSFV. PublicationAC-Innovación. Espacio web de innovación y prácticas docentes en comunicación y arte(Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 2020-07-02) Chaves Martín, Miguel Ángel; Arroyo Fernández, María Dolores; Aumente Rivas, Pilar; García García, María Isabel; Layuno Rosas, María Ángeles; Pérez Segura, Francisco Javier; López-Narváez Fernández, Claudia; Martínez López, Beatriz; Pérez Asperilla, Estíbaliz; Pérez Asensio, Sara; Sánchez Bautista, Ana BelénAC-Innovación se plantea como una plataforma digital para actividades de innovación y prácticas docentes destinada a alumnos de las áreas de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades dentro de las titulaciones de Grado y Máster en publicidad y Relaciones Públicas, Comunicación Audiovisual, Historia del Arte y Bellas Artes, como espacio web de difusión, por parte de aquellos alumnos que deseen integrarse, de los trabajos realizados e inicialmente planteados a través de esta intranet, facilitando su conocimiento y divulgación, con los consiguientes beneficios que esto implica tanto en el ámbito académico e investigador como en el laboral. Partiendo de proyectos anteriores, se creó en primer lugar la estructura de la plataforma online y el diseño de sus elementos, haciendo la posterior implementación con datos actualizados, poniendo así en práctica la posibilidad de presentar y divulgar el resultado de los mejores trabajos y prácticas docentes elaborados durante el curso académico, tanto en el aula como fuera de ella. El plantamiento inicial de la plataforma integraba las áreas de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades en el ámbito de las relaciones Arte, Comunicación Audiovisual y Publicidad, creando un espacio virtual abierto a la difusión de los primeros trabajos de investigación de los alumnos (trabajos de Fin de Máster y de Fin de Grado), a la innovación docente (aplicación de nuevas tecnologías para la práctica docente) y al mundo laboral (entrevistas a profesionales de los diferentes sectores implicados, reseñas de eventos profesionales, exposiciones, etc.). Con el nuevo espacio web se aúnan y dan continuidad a proyectos anteriores vinculados a la difusión de trabajos de inicio a la investigación (ACReserach. Plataforma digital para jóvenes investigadores en artes plásticas, arquitectura y comunicación en la ciudad contemporánea. Convocatorias 2014 y 2015) y a la aplicación de nuevas tecnologías para la innovación y prácticas docentes (Plataforma online para alumnos de Comunicación Audiovisual, Publicidad y Relaciones Públicas e Historia del Arte). Convocatorias 2017 y 2018), enmarcándose así plenamente dentro de los nuevos criterios establecidos por el Plan de Bolonia en la configuración del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior, entre cuyos objetivos está la necesidad de potenciar las aptitudes y destrezas del alumno en el proceso educativo mediante un incremento considerable de su participación en el mismo, tanto en el desarrollo de los cursos como en el momento final, especialmente importante, en el que se requieren nuevos impulsos que estimulen pautas y orientaciones en el proceso a seguir. Atendiendo a las directrices del nuevo Plan, la incorporación de las Nuevas Tecnologías de Información y Comunicación (TIC) a la metodología docente universitaria se hace imprescindible para acometer el reto de la construcción de una Europa del conocimiento basada en la calidad del sistema educativo, facilitando con ello la inexcusable reformulación del papel y práctica pedagógica del docente y el desarrollo e interacción de las destrezas y potencialidades cognitivas del alumno. En este sentido, las nuevas tecnologías facilitan el desarrollo de una acción formativa flexible, centrada en el estudiante y adaptada a sus características y necesidades, y así se ha entendido la idoneidad y oportunidad de crear, desarrollar y actualizar la plataforma online de prácticas docentes e investigación objeto de este proyecto. PublicationAssessing the Risk of African Swine Fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar(2013) De la Torre, Ana; Bosch, J.; Iglesias Martín, Irene; Muñoz Reoyo, María Jesús; Mur, Lina; Martínez López, Beatriz; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelThe presence of African swine fever (ASF) in the Caucasus region and Russian Federation has increased concerns that wild boars may introduce the ASF virus into the European Union (EU). This study describes a semi-quantitative approach for evaluating the risk of ASF introduction into the EU by wild boar movements based on the following risk estimators: the susceptible population of (1) wild boars and (2) domestic pigs in the country of origin; the outbreak density in (3) wild boars and (4) domestic pigs in the countries of origin, the (5) suitable habitat for wild boars along the EU border; and the distance between the EU border and the nearest ASF outbreak in (6) wild boars or (7) domestic pigs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential risk estimators. The highest risk was found to be concentrated in Finland, Romania, Latvia and Poland, and wild boar habitat and outbreak density were the two most important risk estimators. Animal health authorities in at-risk countries should be aware of these risk estimators and should communicate closely with wild boar hunters and pig farmers to rapidly detect and control ASF. PublicationBe-FAST and Be-CoDiS: mathematical models to predict the spread of human and livestocks diseases with real data. Application to the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic and livestock diseases(2014-11-05) Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Fernández Carrión, Eduardo; Martínez López, Beatriz; Ngom, Diéne; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelDuring this presentation, we introduce the mathematical formulation of a new spatial-temporal epidemiological model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-COuntries Disease Spread). Be-CoDiS is based on the combination of an Individual-Based model (modelling the interaction between countries, considered as individuals) for the between-countries spread with a compartmental model, based on ordinary differential equations, for the within-country spread. The goal is to simulate the spread of a particular disease and identify the risk zones worldwide. This model is a particular adaptation of a previous epidemiological software, called Be-FAST, used to predict the spatial spread of livestock diseases. Both Be-FAST and Be-CoDiS models are detailed and some real applications, such as the study of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease epidemic or the Classical Swine Fever in Spain, are shown. PublicationBe-FAST – Between Farm Animal Spatial Transmission: An epidemiological model for studying the spread and the economic impact of animal diseases(2013) Ivorra, Benjamin; Fernández Carrión, Eduardo; Martínez López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel PublicationBe-FAST: A spatial epidemiological model for between- and within-farms disease spread. Application to Classical Swine Fever(2011) Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Martínez López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel PublicationDesarrollo de modelos epidemiológicos cuantitativos para el análisis del riesgo de introducción y difusión potencial de los virus de la fiebre aftosa y de la peste porcina clásica en España(Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Servicio de Publicaciones, 2010-09-14) Martínez López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J. M.; Pérez, Andrés MaximilianoLos objetivos de esta tesis han sido, por un lado, identificar las zonas y periodos con mayor riesgo de introducción de los virus de la fiebre aftosa (VFA) y de la peste porcina clásica (VPPC) en España y, por otro, caracterizar su difusión una vez dentro de nuestras fronteras. Para ello se han desarrollado cuatro modelos, dos para el análisis del riesgo de introducción y otros dos para evaluar su potencial difusión.[ABSTRACT]The objectives of this thesis have been, first, to identify areas and periods with increased risk of introduction of Foot-and-Mouth virus (FMDV) and Classical Swine Fever virus (CSFV) in Spain and, second, to characterize their spread once introduced into the country. For that reason, four models have been developed, two for the analysis of the risk of introduction and two others for the evaluation of the potential disease spread. PublicationDiseño de un modelo económico y de planes de control para una epidemia de peste porcina clásica(Universidad Complutense. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, 2011-09) Fernández Carrión, Eduardo; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Martínez López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelLa Peste Porcina Clásica (PPC) es una de las enfermedades que más dañocausan a la economía del sector porcino en Europa y en el resto del mundo . Un ejemplo claro es España, donde contamos con dos epidemias históricas, en 1997/98 y 2001/02, que supusieron casi 110 millones de euros en pérdidas entre empresarios y la Administración, alcanzando en muchos casos, la bancarrota de empresas. No es el único país afectado, pues ya en Europa, países como Alemania (1994-2007), Holanda (1997-98), Bélgica (1997) o Reino Unido (2000) también se han visto afectados a lo largo de este ´ultimo siglo por la misma enfermedad y con pérdidas económicas incluso superiores. El objetivo del presente documento tiene una doble intención. Por una parte se mostrará un estudio sobre una parte de la estructura económica de la industria porcina en España. El fin de este estudio será la elaboración de una clasificación gastos que supondría una epidemia de PPC, su implantación en un modelo de simulación de epidemias y el análisis de los resultados obtenidos en la ejecución de distintas simulaciones. Por otra parte, se incorporarán nuevas ideas que traten reducir el impacto sanitario de una epidemia, pero también que minimice los gastos suplementarios que generen de acuerdo al modelo económico una vez desarrollado. Durante la realización del siguiente trabajo nos hemos apoyado en diversos resultados y publicaciones sobre modelos de propagación de epidemias de PPC, en análisis económicos y en análisis de riesgos [1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]. Estas vías de información han sido muy útiles para el diseño y en la comparación con los resultados obtenidos. Además se han adaptado muchas de las ideas propuestas por algunos autores como la clasificación de pérdidas (H.S. Horst , H.W. Saatkamp ). No obstante, ha sido también necesaria la investigación de parámetros económicos fuera de cualquier publicación y de difícil acceso. Para finalizar el documento, se muestra el análisis de los resultados obtenidos en las dos fuentes de estudio y las conclusiones deducidas de éstos que puedan ser de utilidad para nuevos enfoques en estudio posteriores. PublicationEvaluation of the risk factors contributing to the African swine fever occurrence in Sardinia, Italy(Frontiers Media, 2015) Martínez López, Beatriz; Perez, Andres M; Feliziani, Francesco; Rolesu, Sandro; Mur, Lina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelThis study assesses the relation between hypothesized risk factors and African swine fever virus (ASFV) distribution in Sardinia (Italy) after the beginning of the eradication program in 1993, using a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model. Results indicate that the probability of ASFV occurrence in Sardinia was associated to particular socio-cultural, productive and economical factors found in the region, particularly to large number of confined (i.e., closed) farms (most of them backyard), high road density, high mean altitude, large number of open fattening farms, and large number of pigs per commune. Conversely, large proportion of open farms with at least one census and large proportion of open farms per commune, were found to be protective factors for ASFV. Results suggest that basic preventive and control strategies, such as yearly census or registration of the pigs per farm and better control of the public lands where pigs are usually raised, together with endanced effords of outreach and communication with pig producers should help in the success of the eradication program for ASF in the Island. Methods and results presented here will inform decision making to better control and eradicate ASF in Sardinia and in all those areas with similar management and epidemiological conditions. PublicationEvaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria(Elsevier Science, 2013-07-26) Martínez López, Beatriz; Ivorra, Benjamin; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Fernánez-Carrión, Eduardo; Alexandrov, Tsviatko; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelThe study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF)from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever PublicationEvaluation of the risk of the spread and the economic impact of Classical Swine Fever and Foot-and-Mouth Disease by using the epidemiological model Be-FAST(2013) Ivorra, Benjamin; Martínez López, Beatriz; Fernández Carrión, Eduardo; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel PublicationEvidence of shared bovine viral diarrhea infections between red deer and extensively raised cattle in south-central Spain(2016) Rodríguez Prieto, Víctor; Kukielka, Deborah; Rivera Arroyo, Belén; Martínez López, Beatriz; de las Heras, Ana Isabel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Vicente, JoaquínBovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is a pestivirus that affects cattle production worldwide and that can infect other ungulates such as cervids and even wild boar (Sus scrofa). It is believed that domestic livestock can become infected through contact with wild animals, though it is known that infection can spread among wild animals in the absence of contact with livestock. Little is known about the sharing of BVDV infection between wild and domestic animals in the same habitat, which is important for designing eradication campaigns and preventing outbreaks, especially on hunting estates with high animal densities. PublicationIdentification of Hotspots in the European Union for the Introduction of Four Zoonotic Arboviroses by Live Animal Trade(Public Library Science, 2013) Coffey, Lark L.; Durand, Benoit; Lecollinet, Sylvie; Beck, Cécile; Martínez López, Beatriz; Balenghien, Thomas; Chevalier, VéroniqueLive animal trade is considered a major mode of introduction of viruses from enzootic foci into disease-free areas. Due to societal and behavioural changes, some wild animal species may nowadays be considered as pet species. The species diversity of animals involved in international trade is thus increasing. This could benefit pathogens that have a broad host range such as arboviruses. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk posed by live animal imports for the introduction, in the European Union (EU), of four arboviruses that affect human and horses: Eastern and Western equine encephalomyelitis, Venezuelan equine encephalitis and Japanese encephalitis. Importation data for a five-years period (2005-2009, extracted from the EU TRACES database), environmental data (used as a proxy for the presence of vectors) and horses and human population density data (impacting the occurrence of clinical cases) were combined to derive spatially explicit risk indicators for virus introduction and for the potential consequences of such introductions. Results showed the existence of hotspots where the introduction risk was the highest in Belgium, in the Netherlands and in the north of Italy. This risk was higher for Eastern equine encephalomyelitis (EEE) than for the three other diseases. It was mainly attributed to exotic pet species such as rodents, reptiles or cage birds, imported in small-sized containments from a wide variety of geographic origins. The increasing species and origin diversity of these animals may have in the future a strong impact on the risk of introduction of arboviruses in the EU. PublicationIdentification of suitable areas for West Nile virus outbreaks in equid populations for application in surveillance plans: the example of the Castile and Leon region of Spain(2012-09) Rodríguez Prieto, Víctor; Martínez López, Beatriz; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Muñoz Reoyo, María Jesús; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelThe introduction and rapid spread of West Nile virus (WNV) into new areas such as the American continent, associated also with the severity of the disease in humans and equids has increased concerns regarding the need to better prevent and control future WNV incursions. WNV outbreaks in equids usually occur under specific climatic and environmental conditions and, typically, before detection of WNV cases in humans. Targeting surveillance strategies in areas and time periods identified as suitable for WNV outbreaks in equids may act as an early-warning system to prevent disease in both equids and humans. This study used a GIS-based framework to identify suitable areas and time periods for WNV outbreak occurrence in one of the most important areas of equid production in Spain, i.e. Castile and Leon. Methods and results presented here may help to improve the early detection and control of future WNV outbreaks in Spain and other regions. PublicationImpact of the climatic change on animal diseases spread: the example of bluetongue in Spain(Universidad Complutense, Servicio de Publicaciones, 2011) Cianci, C.; Granero Belinchón, R.; Picado Alvarez, R.; Pino Carrasco, F.J.; Rodrigo Campos, N.; Tamayo Más, E.; Vázquez, M.; Ivorra, Benjamin; Martínez López, Beatriz; Ramos del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelClimate change is affecting the ecosystem and many of the factors associated with human and animal diseases. In particular, significant changes in insect-borne diseases have been shown. The clearest example is found in Europe regarding the bluetongue virus (BTV), a disease of ruminants transmitted by insects (Culicoides spp.). Traditionally this disease was distributed below the 40th parallel, but since 2006 spread to northern Europe where the situation is now endemic. This spread of BTV has been produced by several factors. First, there is a direct relationship between the increased of temperature and the presence of Culicoides. It is also important to highlight the role of the wind in the movement of insects, and could be a significant mode of transmission of vector-borne diseases (such as bluetongue) from endemic areas to free areas. In Spain, the introduction of Culicoides by the wind has not formally been proved, but many experts and epidemiological data has hypothesized it, especially in the first outbreaks occurred in 2004 in the Iberian Peninsula. The objective of the model described here has been, first, to predict the number of Culicoides introduced by the wind and its potential survival in Spain and, secondly, to assess the impact that a potential increase in temperature could have on the distribution and survival Culicoides in Spain. This model will help to identify locations and time periods at highest risk for mosquitoes introduction and survival, and will help to optimize efforts and better prevent and control future outbreaks of bluetongue in the country. PublicationImplementation and validation of an economic module for the epidemiological model Be-FAST to predict the costs generated by livestock diseases epidemics. Application to the Classical Swine Fever case in Spain.(2015) Fernández-Carrión, E.; Ivorra, Benjamin; Martínez López, Beatriz; Ramos, A. M.; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José ManuelClassical Swine Fever (CSF) is one of the most harmful livestock di-seases for the economy of the swine sector worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the costs in the two last CSF outbreaks (1997 and 2001) have been estimated above 108 million euros. In this work, we aim to evaluate the economic impact of important livestock disease epidemics, and particularly the CSF in Spain. This study starts with a preliminary classification of the costs associated with CSF epidemics. In order to estimate the expected costs of a given epidemic in a considered area, a new economic module has been integrated into the epidemiological model Be-FAST, a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of diseases within and between farms. The input data for economic parameters have been obtained from entities related with the swine industry in Spain. The new Be-FAST module is tested by comparing the results obtained with historical data from CSF epidemics in Spain. The outcomes show that severe CSF epidemics also have a strong economic impact with around 80% of the costs related to animal culling, while costs associated with control measures are directly associated with the number of infected farms and the duration of the epidemic. The results presented in this work are expected to provide valuable information to decision makers, including animal health officials and insurance companies, and can be extended to other livestock diseases or used to predict the economic impact of future outbreaks. PublicationIntroduction of African Swine Fever into the European Union through Illegal Importation of Pork and Pork Products(Public Library Science, 2013) Gubbins, Simon; Costard, Solenne; Jones, Bryony Anne; Martínez López, Beatriz; Mur, Lina; de la Torre, Ana; Martínez, Marta; Sánchez Vizcaíno, Fernando; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo; Wieland, BarbaraTransboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever.