RT Journal Article
T1 Quantifying the spread in sudden stratospheric warming wave forcing in CMIP6
A1 Martínez Andradas, Verónica
A1 De La Cámara Illescas, Álvaro
A1 Zurita Gotor, Pablo
A1 Lott, François
A1 Serva, Federico
AB Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) show a large spread across climate models in characteristics such as frequency of occurrence, seasonality and strength. This is reflective of inherent model biases. A well-known source of inter-model variability is the parameterized gravity wave forcing, as the parameterization  schemes vary from model to model. This work compares the simulation of boreal SSWs in historical runs for seven high-top Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models and in two reanalyses. The analysis is focused on the evolution of the different terms in the transformed Eulerian mean zonal mean zonal momentum equation. A large spread is found between models and with reanalyses in the mean magnitude of the resolved and parameterized wave forcing and the responses (wind deceleration and anomalous residual circulation). The results reveal that, in the stratosphere, both the wind deceleration and thestrengthening of the residual circulation during SSWs correlate linearly across the models with anomalies in the resolved wave forcing. In the mesosphere, the forcing is a combination of resolved waves and, predominantly, parameterized gravity waves. Models with larger gravity wave forcing anomalies produce larger changes in the residual circulation, while models with larger resolved wave forcing anomalies produce stronger wind deceleration, which we attribute to differences in the spatial shape of resolved and parameterized wave forcing. Although the forcing–response relation across individual SSW events is similar for each model in the stratosphere, this does not hold in the mesosphere. Our results are useful for interpreting the spread in projections of the dynamical forcing of SSWs in a changing climate.
PB Copernicus Publications
YR 2025
FD 2025-03-25
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/121032
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/121032
LA eng
NO Martínez-Andradas, V., de la Cámara, A., Zurita-Gotor, P., Lott, F., and Serva, F.: Quantifying the spread in sudden stratospheric warming wave forcing in CMIP6, Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 329–343, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-329-2025, 2025
NO PRE2020-091812
NO Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO European Commission
DS Docta Complutense
RD 20 mar 2026