RT Journal Article
T1 On SIR-models with Markov-modulated events: Length of an outbreak, total size of the epidemic and number of secondary infections
A1 Almaraz Luengo, Elena Salome
A1 Gómez Corral, Antonio
AB A Markov-modulated framework is presented to incorporate correlated inter-event times into the stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model for a closed finite community. The resulting process allows us to deal with non-exponential distributional assumptions on the contact process between the compartment of infectives and the compartment of susceptible individuals, and the recovery process of infected individuals, but keeping the dimensionality of the underlying Markov chain model tractable. The variability between SIR-models with distinct level of correlation is discussed in terms of extinction times, the final size of the epidemic, and the basic reproduction number, which is defined here as a random variable rather than an expected value.
SN 1553-524X
YR 2018
FD 2018
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/98572
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/98572
LA eng
NO Almaraz, E., y A. Gómez-Corral. «On SIR-Models with Markov-Modulated Events: Length of an Outbreak, Total Size of the Epidemic and Number of Secondary Infections». Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - B 23, n.o 6 (4 de julio de 2018): 2153-76. https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdsb.2018229.
NO Universidad Complutense de Madrid
DS Docta Complutense
RD 18 abr 2025