RT Journal Article
T1 Risk Mapping of African Swine Fever in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boars to Enhance Management and Surveillance in Asia
A1 Kawaguchi, Nijiho
A1 Aguilar Vega, Cecilia
A1 Sasaki, Michihito
A1 Orba, Yasuko
A1 Sawa, Hirofumi
A1 Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
A1 Isoda, Norikazu
A1 Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
A1 Ito, Satoshi
AB African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars, caused by the ASF virus (ASFV), which has rapidly spread across Asia in recent years. In this region, most reported ASF cases involve domestic pigs, while cases in wild boars remain notably lower except in a few countries. However, factors such as the high population of wild boars, limited wildlife surveillance, and inadequate farm biosecurity suggest that the prevalence and transmission of ASFV between these hosts may be underestimated. Therefore, we used a simplified multicriteria approach (SMCA) to identify vulnerable areas (VAs) for ASFV infection and validated the resulting VA maps with chi-square tests using reported ASF cases. The spatial SMCA revealed that VAs for ASFV infection in domestic pigs are concentrated in eastern China, while high-risk zones for ASFV infection in wild boars span Russia, eastern China, and Southeast Asia. Sensitity analysis showed that the variables that most influenced the risk of ASFV infection in domestic pigs and wild boars were anthropogenic factors and distribution of wild boars, respectively. Additionally, we predicted areas with significant transmission potential between domestic pigs and wild boars. High-risk regions for interspecies transmission include eastern China, southwestern Korea, and southern Japan. This study offers a standardized method to assess ASFV infection risk across Asia by integrating environmental and anthropogenic factors rather than relying solely on reported outbreaks. The findings highlight potential high-risk regions, including those without detected outbreaks, to improve surveillance and early detection strategies
PB Wiley
SN 1865-1674
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/128356
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/128356
LA eng
NO Kawaguchi, N., Aguilar-Vega, C., Sasaki, M., Orba, Y., Sawa, H., Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J. M., Isoda, N., Bosch, J., & Ito, S. (2025). Risk Mapping of African Swine Fever in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boars to Enhance Management and Surveillance in Asia. Transboundary and emerging diseases, 2025, 8850856. https://doi.org/10.1155/tbed/8850856
NO Author ContributionsNijiho Kawaguchi, Jaime Bosch, Satoshi Ito,CeciliaAguilar-Vega, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno: conceptualiza-tion. Nijiho Kawaguchi, Jaime Bosch, Satoshi Ito, NorikazuIsoda: data negotiation and collection. Nijiho Kawaguchi,Jaime Bosch, Satoshi Ito, Cecilia Aguilar-Vega: methodologyand formal analysis. Satoshi Ito, Jaime Bosch, CeciliaAguilar-Vega, Norikazu Isoda,José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno:no: validation, writing – review and editing.Nijiho Kawaguchi,Satoshi Ito: drafting the manuscript. Michihito Sasaki, YasukoOrba, Hirofumi Sawa: reviewing the manuscript. NorikazuIsoda, Jaime Bosch, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno: supervi-sion. All authors have equally contributed to the study. NijihoKawaguchi and Jaime Bosch should be listed as co-first authors.
NO European Commission
NO World-leading Innovative and Smart Education (WISE) Program from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan
NO Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED)
NO Tobitate! (Leap for Tomorrow) Study Abroad Initiative and the Leading School Section, Hokkaido University
DS Docta Complutense
RD 31 dic 2025