RT Journal Article T1 Tracking the leading edge of Fagus sylvatica in North-Western Iberia: Holocene migration inertia, forest succession and recent global change A1 Sánchez de Dios, Rut A1 Hernández, Laura A1 Montes, Fernando A1 Sáinz Ollero, Helios A1 Cañellas, Isabel AB The Iberian Peninsula constitutes the south-western limit of the European distribution of Fagus sylvatica L. However, although the Iberian North-West extreme would appear to be climatically suitable for the species, F. sylvatica is not present there. This fact has led to the suggestion that the species is not yet in equilibrium with the climate and that there is a migration lag in the post-glacial expansion of the species. The objective of this work is to understand the main biotic and abiotic factors driving F. sylvatica distribution and population dynamics in the Iberian Atlantic biogeographical region over recent decades. Furthermore, in the light of other studies which suggest that the expansion of F. sylvatica in North-Western Iberia might be related to the retraction of Q. petraea (Matt.) Leibl. forests, we also study the demographic trends of both F. sylvatica and Q. petraea along with oak-beech interaction processes to infer forest succession dynamics.Using data from the last two cycles of the Spanish National Forest Inventory (1986–2012) for the study area (the Iberian Atlantic biogeographical region); dominance, population structure, recruitment and basal area increment were analyzed in different forest types for the two target species. General linear models and Bayesian structural equation modelling techniques were also applied to study the direct and indirect drivers of recruitment and forest succession.Contrary to what might be expected under the current conditions of climatic change, the population of F. sylvatica in North-Western Iberia is expanding, the basal area increment of F. sylvatica increasing westwards and new recruitment occurring in the lowlands. Accordingly, the Iberian Atlantic biogeographical region may be considered one of the leading edges of F. sylvatica. Our results also identify an inter-specific relationship between Q. petraea and F. sylvatica which negatively affects Q. petraea. The findings demonstrate that Q. petraea forests are being replaced by F. sylvatica forests in North-Western Iberia. These results not only confirm a previous biogeographical hypothesis but also provide new leads for forest management and conservation strategies under current and future climatic conditions. PB Elsevier SN 1433-8319 YR 2016 FD 2016-06 LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/23267 UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/23267 LA eng NO Ministerio de Agricultura y Pesca, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente (España) NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN) NO Red Española de Parques Nacionales DS Docta Complutense RD 17 abr 2025