RT Journal Article
T1 Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting
A1 Fernández-Castillo, Pablo
A1 Losada Doval, Teresa
A1 Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
A1 García-Maroto, Diego
A1 Mohino Harris, Elsa
A1 Durán Montejano, Luis
AB The impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic and European sector (NAE) climate are season-dependent and, in some cases, not linear and/or not stationary. Previous studies have found multidecadal variability in ENSO teleconnections to NAE in certain seasons, relating it to changes in the background state. However, the stationarity of the teleconnection and its surface impacts in Europe during early winter remain largely unexplored, a gap intended to be addressed in this study. The observational analysis reveals changes in the teleconnection impacts and mechanisms over recent decades. These changes have strong implications for the assessment of seasonal  predictability, hence the performance of the SEAS5 seasonal prediction model is analysed. While SEAS5 does not accurately capture the observed non-stationarity, it displays pronounced multidecadal changes in forecast skill. This implies the emergence of windows of opportunity for seasonal forecasting, where predictability may be higher than initially expected.
PB Nature Potfolio
SN 2397-3722
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123778
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123778
LA eng
NO Fernández-Castillo, P., Losada, T., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. et al. Multidecadal variability of the ENSO early-winter teleconnection to Europe and implications for seasonal forecasting. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 272 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01160-3
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO Instituto de Salud Carlos III (España)
NO Ministerio de Transición Ecológica y Reto Demográfico (España)
NO European Commission NextGenerationEU
NO Plataforma Temática Interdisciplinar (PTI) Clima y Servicios Climáticos del CSIC (España)
NO Gobierno de España
NO Copernicus Climate Change Service
NO Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
DS Docta Complutense
RD 19 oct 2025