RT Report T1 Keynes´s Approach to Macroeconomic Modelling: a Popperian Reconstruction T2 La modelización macroeconómica en el enfoque keynesiano: una reconstrucción popperiana A1 Palacio Vera, Alfonso A1 Ayala, Iván H AB We review Keynes´s attempt to deal with the `problem of induction´ since his Treatise on Probability and then argue that Popper´s `solution´ to the former, known as Popper´s evolutionary of knowledge and learning, is compatible with Keynes´s adoption of a conventional theory of knowledge in his later economic writings. We also argue that Keynes´s macro-theory as it appears in both his General Theory and his 1937 QJE paper can be (re)interpreted as an instance of a reformulated version of the `subjectivist´ version of Popper´s `Rationality Principle´ (RPs) according to which agents´ behaviour is appropriate or adequate to the problem-situation as the theorist believes that agents believe the former is. A number of further results follow from the previous arguments. AB Repasamos el intento de Keynes de abordar el "problema de la inducción" en su Treatise on Probability y señalamos que la solución propuesta por Popper al mismo, conocido como la teoría popperiana del conocimiento y el aprendizaje es compatible con la adopción por parte de Keynes de una teoría convencionalista del conocimiento en su última etapa. También señalamos que la Teoría General y su artículo del año 1937 en el QJE pueden ser interpretados como un caso concreto de la versión `subjetivista´ del "Principio de Racionalidad" Popperiano, de acuerdo con el cual el comportamiento de los agentes económicos es adecuado al problema-situación tal y como el modelizador cree que los agentes perciben este último. De esta interpretación obtenemos una serie de resultados adicionales. SN 2255-5471 YR 2015 FD 2015-11 LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/27536 UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/27536 LA eng NO Andrews, D. R. (1999) Continuity and change in Keynes´s thought: the importance of Hume, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 6(1), pp. 1-21.Arrow, K.J. (1986) Rationality of Self and Others in an Economic System, Journal of Business, 59(4), pp. S385-99.Ayala, I. H. & Palacio-Vera, A. (2015) Some Reflections on Popper´s Approach to Rationality and its Implications for the Social Sciences, Working Paper no. 1503, March, School of Economics and Business, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain.Bateman, B. W. (1987) Keynes´s Changing Conception of Probability, Economics & Philosophy, 3(1), pp. 97-120.Bateman, B. W. (1988) G. E. Moore & J. M. Keynes: A Missing Chapter in the History of the Expected Utility Model, American Economic Review, 78(5), pp. 1098-1106.Bateman, B. W. (1990) Keynes, induction, & econometrics, History of Political Economy, 22(2), pp. 359-379.Bateman, B. W. (1991) Das Maynard Keynes Problem, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(15), pp. 101-111.Becker, G. (1962) Irrational behavior and economic theory, Journal of Political Economy, 70(1), pp. 1-13.Beinhocker, E. D. (2013) Reflexivity, complexity, and the nature of social science, Journal of Economic Methodology, 20(4), pp. 330-342.Brown-Collier, E. & Bausor, R. (1988) The Epistemological Foundations of the General Theory, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 35(3), pp. 227-241.Carabelli, A. M. (1988) On Keynes´s Method, London: Macmillan.Carnap, R. (1950) Logical Foundations of Probability, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Carvalho, F. (1988) Keynes on probability, uncertainty, and decision making, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 11(1), pp. 66-80.Choi, Y. B. (1993) Paradigms and Conventions. Uncertainty, Decision Making, and Entrepreneurship, Michigan: University of Michigan.Coddington, A. (1976) Keynesian Economics: The Search for First Principles, Journal of Economic Literature, 14(4), pp. 1258-1273.Coddington, A. (1982) Deficient Foresight: A Troublesome Theme in Keynesian Economics, American Economic Review, 72(3), pp. 480-487.Cottrell, A. (1993) Keynes´s Theory of Probability and its Relevance to his Economics. Three Theses, Economics & Philosophy, 9(1), pp. 25-51.Crotty, J. R. (1980) Post-Keynesian Economic Theory: An Overview and Evaluation, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 70(2), pp. 20-25.Crotty, J. R. (1990) Keynes on the Stages of Development of the Capitalist Economy: The Institutional Foundations of Keynes´s Methodology, Journal of Economic Issues, 24(3), pp. 761-780.Crotty, J. R. (1994) Are Keynesian Uncertainty and Macrotheory Compatible? Conventional Decision Making, Institutional Structures, and Conditional Stability in Keynesian Macromodels, in G. Dymski & R. Pollin (eds.), New Perspectives in Monetary Macroeconomics, pp. 105-139, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Davidson, P. (1991) Is Probability Theory Relevant for Uncertainty? A Post Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), pp. 129-143.Davis, J. B. (1989-90) Keynes & Organicism: Comment, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 12(2), pp. 308-315.Davis, J. B. (1994) Keynes´s Philosophical Development, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Davis, J. B. (1997) J. M. Keynes on History and Convention, in Harcourt, G. C. and Riach, P. A. (eds.) A ‘Second Edition’ of The General Theory, Vol. 2, pp. 203-221, London: Routledge.De Finetti, B. (1937) Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its subjective Sources, Annales de l´Institut Henri Poincaré, vol. 7, reproduced in Kyburg, H. E. & Smokler, H. E. (eds.) Studies in Subjective Probability, pp. 93-158, 1967, New York: John Willey & Sons.Dow, S. C. (1995) The appeal of neoclassical economics: some insights from Keynes’s epistemology, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 19(6), pp. 715-733.Dow, S. C. (2009) David Hume & Modern Economics, Capitalism & Society, 4(1), Article 1.Dow, A. & Dow, S. C. (2011) Animal Spirits Revisited, Capitalism & Society, 6(2), Article 1.Eichner, A. S. & Kregel, J. A. (1975) An Essay on Post-Keynesian Theory: A New Paradigm in Economics, Journal of Economic Literature, 13(4), pp. 1293-1314.Festinger, L. (1957) A theory of cognitive dissonance, Standford, California: University of Standford.Fitzgibbon, A. (1988) Keynes's vision: a new political economy, Oxford (UK): Clarendon Press.Gillies, D. (2000) Philosophical Theories of Probability, Routledge: London.Hamlin, A. P (1986) Ethics, Economics and the State, New York: St. Martin´s Press. Reprinted in Caldwell, B. (ed.), 1993, The Philosophy and Methodology of Economics I, pp. 304-362, Aldershot: Edward Elgar.Hamouda, O. F. & Harcourt, G. C. (1988) Post Keynesianism: From Criticism to Coherence, Bulletin of Economic Research, 40(1), pp. 1-33.Hamouda, O. & Smithin, J. (1988) Some Remarks on ‘Uncertainty and Economic Analysis’, Economic Journal, 98(389), March, pp. 159-164.Hayek, F. A. (1942) Scientism and the Study of Society. Part I, Economica, 9(35), pp. 267-291.Hayek, F. A. (1943a) The Facts of the Social Sciences, Ethics, 54(1), pp. 1-13.Hayek, F. A. (1943b) Scientism and the Study of Society. Part II, Economica, 10 (37), pp. 34-63.Hayek, F. A. (1967) Degrees of Explanation, in Studies in Philosophy, Politics & Economics, pp. 3-21, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Heiner, R. A. (1983) The Origin of Predictable Behavior, American Economic Review, 73(4), pp. 560-595.Hempel, G. C. (1949) The Function of General Laws in History, in H. Feigl & W. Sellars (eds.) Readings in Philosophical Analysis, pp. 462-5, New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts .Hicks, J. R. (1974) The Crisis in Keynesian Economics, Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Hicks, J. R. (1979) Causality in Economics, New York: Basic Books.Howitt, P. (1997) Expectations and Uncertainty in Contemporary Keynesian Models, in Harcourt, G. C. & Riach, P. A. (eds.) A ‘Second Edition’ of The General Theory, Vol. 1, pp. 238-260, London: Routledge.Hume, D. (1978[1739-40]) A Treatise of Human Nature, Oxford: Clarendon Press.Hume, D. (2006[1748]) An enquiry concerning human understanding: a critical edition, Oxford, Clarendon Press; New York: Oxford University Press.Iwai, K. (2009) The Second End of Laissez Faire ― Bootstrapping Nature of Money and Inherent Nature of Capitalism, CIRJE-F-646 Discussion Paper, August, University of Tokyo.Jeffreys, H. (1939) Theory of Probability, Oxford: Oxford University Press.Kakarot-Handtke, E. (2012) Why Post Keynesianism is not yet a science, Working Paper, University of Stuttgart, Institute of Economics and Law, September.Keynes, J. M. (1920) A Treatise on Probability, London: Macmillan.Keynes, J. M. (1936) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Cambridge: Macmillan.Keynes, J. M. (1937) The General Theory of Employment, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), pp. 209–223.Keynes, J. M. (1973a) The General Theory and After: A Supplement, The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. XXIX, pp. 293-94, London: Macmillan.Keynes, J. M. (1973b) Essays in Biography, The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. X, London: Macmillan.Klant, J. (1985) The Slippery Transition, in T. Lawson & H. Pesaran (eds.) Keynes´s Economics, London: Croon Helm.Knight, F. H. (1971[1921]) Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Kuhn, T. (1962) The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Lavoie, M. (2014) Post-Keynesian economics: new foundations, Northampton (MA): Edward Elgar.Lawson, T. (1985) Uncertainty and Economic Analysis, Economic Journal, 95(380), pp. 909-927.Lawson, T. (1987) The Relative/Absolute Nature of Knowledge and Economic Analysis, Economic Journal, 97(388), pp. 951-970.Lawson, T. (1988) Probability and uncertainty in economic analysis, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 11(1), pp. 38-65.Littleboy, B. (1990) On Interpreting Keynes: A Study in Reconciliation, London: Routledge.Moore, G. E. (1912) Ethics, New York: Henry Holt.Moore, G.E (1993[1903]), Principia Ethica, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Notturno, M. A. (1998) Truth, Rationality, and the Situation, Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 28(3), pp. 400-421.O’Donnell, R. (1990) An overview of probability, expectations, uncertainty and rationality in Keynes’s conceptual framework, Review of Political Economy, 2(3), pp. 253-66.Papandreou, A, G. (1959) Explanation and Prediction in Economics, Science, 129, April, pp. 1096-1100.Popper, K. R. (1959) The Propensity Interpretation of Probability, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 10 (37), pp. 25-42.Popper, K. R. (1990) A World of Propensities, Bristol (UK): Thoemmes.Popper, K. R. (1994) The Myth of the Framework: In defence of science and rationality, London: Routledge.Ramsey, F. P. (1978[1931]) ‘Truth and probability’, in Foundations: Essays in Philosophy, Logic, Mathematics & Economics, pp. 58-100, edited by D. H. Mellor, London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.Robbins, L. (1932) An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science, London: Macmillan. Reprinted in D. M. Hausman (ed.) 1984, The Philosophy of Economics: An anthology, pp. 113-140, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Rotheim, R. J. (1989-90) Organicism and the role of the individual in Keynes: Comment, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 12(2), pp. 316-326Runde, J. (1990) Keynesian Uncertainty and the Weight of Arguments, Economics and Philosophy, 6(2), pp. 275-292.Runde, J. (1997) Keynesian Methodology, in Harcourt, G. C. & Riach, P. A. (eds.) A ‘Second Edition’ of The General Theory, Vol. 2, pp. 222-243, London: Routledge.Runde, J. (1998) Clarifying Frank Knight’s discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 22(5), pp. 539-546.Rutherford, M. C. (1984) Rational expectations and Keynesian uncertainty: a critique, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 6(3), pp. 377-387.Samuelson, P. A. (1969) Classical and Neoclassical Theory, in Clower, R. W. (ed.), Monetary Theory, London: Penguin.Savage, L. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics, New York: Wiley.Schumpeter, J. A. (1984) The Meaning of Rationality in the Social Sciences, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 140(4), pp. 577-593.Shackle, G. L. S. (1984) Comment on the papers by Randall Bausor & Malcolm Rutherford, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 6(3), pp. 388-393.Simon, H. A. (1976) From Substantive to Procedural Rationality, in Spiro J. Latsis (ed.) Method and Appraisal in Economics, pp.129-148, Cambrigde: Cambridge University Press.Solow, R. M. (1985) Economic History and Economics, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 75(2), pp. 328-31.Tarshis, L. (1980) Post-Keynesian Economics: A Promise that Bounced? American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 70(2), pp. 10-28.Veblen, T. B. (1924[1899]) The Theory of the Leisure Class, London: George Allen & Unwin.von Mises, L. (1928) Probability, Statistics & Truth, 2nd revised English edition, Allen & Unwin.von Mises, L. (1944) The Treatment of “Irrationality” in the Social Sciences, Philosophy and Phenomenology Research, 4(4), pp. 527-546.von Neumann, J. & Morgenstern, O. (1947) Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour, Princeton (NJ): Princeton University Press.Walters, B. & Young, D. (1997) On the Coherence of Post-Keynesian Economics, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 44(3), pp. 329-49.Watkins, J. W. N. (1952) Ideal Types and Historical Explanation, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 3(9), pp. 22-43.Whitehead, A. N. & Russell, B. (1925) Principia Mathematica, 2nd edition, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Winslow, E. G. (1986) Human logic and Keynes´s economics, Eastern Economic Journal, 12(4), pp. 413-30.Winslow, E. G. (1989) Organic Interdependence, Uncertainty & Economic Analysis, Economic Journal, 99(398), pp. 1173-1182.Yellen, J. L. (1980) On Keynesian Economics & the Economics of the Post-Keynesians, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 70(2), pp. 15-19. DS Docta Complutense RD 28 abr 2024