RT Journal Article
T1 The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings
A1 Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
A1 Langematz, Ulrike
A1 Meul, Stefanie
A1 Oberländer, Sophie
A1 Abalichin, Janna
A1 Kubin, Anne
AB Future changes in the occurrence rates of major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) have recently been identified in chemistry‐climate model (CCM) simulations, but without reaching a consensus, potentially due to the competition of different forcings. We examine future variations in the occurrence rates of MSWs in transient and timeslice simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) CCM, with a focus on the individual effect of different external factors. Although no statistically significant variation is found in the decadal‐mean frequency of MSWs, a shift of their timing toward midwinter is detected in the future. The strengthening of the polar vortex in early winter is explained by recovering ozone levels following the future decrease in ozone‐depleting substances. In midwinter, a stronger dynamical forcing associated with changes in tropical sea surface temperatures will lead to more MSWs, through a similar mechanism that explains the stratospheric response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
PB American Geophysical Union
SN 0094-8276
SN 1944-8007
YR 2013
FD 2013-04-16
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91943
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91943
LA eng
NO Ayarzagüena, B., U. Langematz, S. Meul, S. Oberländer, J. Abalichin, and A. Kubin (2013), The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2460–2465, doi:10.1002/grl.50477
NO Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
DS Docta Complutense
RD 27 jul 2024