RT Report T1 A model of appointing governors to the Central Bank A1 García de Paso, José I. AB In this paper, a formal model has been developed to analyze the appointment of individuals to serve as central bank governors in a two-party political system when confinnation hearings exist and monetary policy is determined according to a majority-rule voting system. lile major results of the paper are that appointed governors will tend to be more moderate (i) if the nominating party and the confirming party do not coincide, (H) the lower the chance the nominating party and the confrrming party coincide in the future, (in) if the term governors must serve out overlaps an electian, (iv) as the next election approaches, and (v) the lower the probability the nominating party wins the next election. Some of these theoretical results are consistent with existing empírical evidence related to tbe Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. AB En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo para analizar el nombramiento de individuos como miembros del consejo del banco central en un sistema político bipartidista cuando dichos miembros deben ser confirmados por el Parlamento y la política monetaria se determina mediante la regla de la mayoría en el consejo del banco central. El principal resultado obtenido es que los gobernadores nombrados tenderán a ser más moderados (i) si el partido nominador y el confirmador son diferentes, (ii) cuanto menor sea la probabilidad de que ambos partidos coincidan en el futuro, (iii) si el mandato que debe servir un gobernador se solapa con una elección, (iv) a medida que la próxima elección se acerca, y (v) cuanto menor sea la probabilidad de que el partido hoy en el gobierno gane la próxima elección, Varios de estos resultados teóricos son consistentes con la evidencia empírica existente para el Consejo de Gobernadores del Sistema de la Reserva Federal. PB Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE) YR 1994 FD 1994 LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/64161 UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/64161 LA eng NO Akhtar, M.A. and Howard Howe (1991). "The Political and Institutional Independence of U.S. Monetary Policy", Banca Nazionale del Lavara Quarterly Review, 178, pp. 343-389.Chappell, Henry, Thomas Havrilesky and Rob McGregor (1993). "Partisan Monetary Policies; Presidential Influence through the Power of Appointment", Quarterly Journal of Economies, 108, pp. 185-218.Cothren, Richard (1988). "Equilibrium Inflation as Determined by a Policy Committee", Quarterly Journal of Economies, 103, pp. 429-434.García de Paso, José I. (1993). "Central Bank Structure and Monetary Policy Uncertainty". Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, working paper no.9314.Gildea, Jolh (1990). "Explaining FOMC Members' Votes" in T. Mayer, ed., The Political Economy of American Monetary Policy, Cambridge University Press.Havrilesky, Thomas (1988). "Monetary Signalling from the Administration to the Federal Reserve". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 20, pp. 83-101.Havrilesky, Thomas (1991). The Frequency of Monetary Policy Signalling from the Administration to the Federal Reserve", Journal of Money, Gredit, and Banking, 23, pp. 423-428.Havrilesky, Thomas and Robert Schweltzer (1990). "A Theory of FOMC Dissent Voting with Evidence from the Time Series" in T. Mayer, ed., The Political Economy of American Monetary Policy, Cambridge University Press.Havrilesky, Thomas and John Gildea (1992). "Reliable and Unreliable Partisan Appointees to the Board of Governors", Public Choice, 73, pp. 397-417.Waller, Christopher J. (1991). "The Politics of Monetary Policy: A Game Theory Model of Coercion and Bashing by the Administration", Economic Inquiry, 24, pp. 1-13.Waller, Christopher J. (1992). "A Bargaining Model of Partisan Appointments to the Central Bank", Journal of Monetary Economics, 29, pp. 411-428. DS Docta Complutense RD 3 may 2024