RT Journal Article
T1 Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases
A1 Taheri, Shirin
A1 González, Mikel Alexander
A1 Ruiz López, María José
A1 Magallanes, Sergio
A1 Delacour Estrella, Sarah
A1 Lucientes, Javier
A1 Bueno Marí, Rubén
A1 Martínez de la Puente, Josué
A1 Bravo Barriga, Daniel
A1 Frontera, Eva
A1 Polina, Alejandro
A1 Martínez Barciela, Yasmina
A1 Pereira, José Manuel
A1 Garrido, Josefina
A1 Aranda, Carles
A1 Marzal, Alfonso
A1 Ruiz Arrondo, Ignacio
A1 Oteo, José Antonio
A1 Ferraguti, Martina
A1 Gutiérrez López, Rafael
A1 Estrada, Rosa
A1 Miranda, Miguel Ángel
A1 Barceló, Carlos
A1 Morchón, Rodrigo
A1 Montalvo, Tomás
A1 Gangoso De La Colina, Laura Esther
A1 Goiri, Fátima
A1 García Pérez, Ana L.
A1 Ruiz, Santiago
A1 Fernández Martínez, Beatriz
A1 Gómez Barroso, Diana
A1 Figuerola, Jordi
AB Malaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modelled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modelling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g. Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas (e.g. Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g. Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence, with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted surveillance and prevention.
PB Taylor & Francis
SN 2222-1751
YR 2024
FD 2024
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/111039
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/111039
LA eng
NO Taheri, S., González, M. A., Ruiz-López, M. J., Magallanes, S., Delacour-Estrella, S., Lucientes, J., … Figuerola, J. (2024). Modelling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases. Emerging Microbes & Infections, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2024.2343911
NO MCIN/AEI through the European Regional Development Fund (SUMHAL, LifeWatch-2019-09-CSIC-4, POPE 2014-2020) and PLEC2021-007968 project NEXTHREAT MCIN/AEI/10.13039/2011000110333 and European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR funds, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública and La Caixa Foundation through the project ARBOPREVENT (HR22-00123). Part of the samples used for the analyses were provided from studies financed from projects IB16121 and IB16135 from the Extremadura Regional Government, from Ayudas Fundación BBVA a Equipos de Investigación Científica 2019 (PR (19_ECO_0070)). MF is currently funded by a Ramón y Cajal postdoctoral contract (RYC2021-031613-I) from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN).M.J.R.L received support from the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (project PID2020-118921RJ-100 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033).
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO European Commission
NO Fundación La Caixa
NO Junta de Extremadura
NO Fundación BBVA
DS Docta Complutense
RD 15 dic 2025