RT Journal Article
T1 Extreme heat and mortality in the state of Rio de Janeiro in November 2023: attribution to climate change and ENSO
A1 Collazo Inglesini, Soledad Maribel
A1 Barriopedro Cepero, David
A1 García Herrera, Ricardo Francisco
A1 Beguería, Santiago
AB During 2023, the state of Rio de Janeiro experienced unprecedented maximum temperatures, resulting in a substantial increase in human mortality. This study aims to analyze the contribution of global warming to changes in the distribution of annual maximum temperatures and their subsequent impact on mortality rates. Our analysis of extreme temperatures reveals that a non-stationary model, in which the location parameter shifts linearly as a function of global warming and/or the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), provides a significantly better fit to the data than its stationary counterpart. The northern region of the state exhibited the strongest response to climate change, while ENSO effects were most pronounced in the eastern region. Events as likely as the 2023 record were estimated at about 2 °C colder in pre-industrial times. Under a 2 °C global warming scenario, the probability of experiencing maximum temperatures equal to 2023 increases by at least a factor of 3. These findings highlight climate change as the primary driver of extreme temperature intensification, with ENSO acting as a secondary but significant factor in the eastern region. As global warming approaches 2 °C, Rio de Janeiro is projected to experience heat waves of that magnitude approximately every 4 years. Climate change has contributed to one in three heat-related deaths recorded during the peak of the event. Without adaptation and mitigation measures, global warming would further increase the death toll during extreme events of the same frequency to those experienced in 2023.
PB Copernicus Publications
SN 1561-8633
YR 2025
FD 2025
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123923
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/123923
LA eng
NO Collazo, S., Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., and Beguería, S.: Extreme heat and mortality in the state of Rio de Janeiro in November 2023: attribution to climate change and ENSO, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3221–3238, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3221-2025, 2025.
NO European Union
NO Ministerio de Transición Ecológica y Reto Democrático (España)
NO European Commission
NO Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España)
DS Docta Complutense
RD 30 dic 2025