RT Journal Article
T1 A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model
A1 Martínez López, Beatriz
A1 Ivorra, Benjamín Pierre Paul
A1 Ramos Del Olmo, Ángel Manuel
A1 Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
AB A new stochastic and spatial model was developed to evaluate the potential spread of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) within- and between-farms, and considering the specific farm-to-farm contact network. Within-farm transmission was simulated using a modified SI model. Between-farm transmission was assumed to occur by direct contacts (i.e. animal movement) and indirect contacts (i.e. local spread, vehicle and person contacts) and considering the spatial location of farms. Control measures dictated by the European legislation (i.e. depopulation of infected farms, movement restriction, zoning, surveillance, contact tracing) were also implemented into the model. Model experimentation was performed using real data from Segovia, one of the provinces with highest density of pigs in Spain, and results were presented using the mean, 95% probability intervals [95% PI] and risk maps. The estimated mean [95% PI] number of infected, quarantined and depopulated farms were 3 [1,17], 23 [0,76] and 115 [0,318], respectively. The duration of the epidemic was 63 [26,177] days and the most important way of transmission was associated with local spread (61.4% of the infections). Results were consistent with the spread of previous CSFV introductions into the study region. The model and results presented here may be useful for the decision making process and for the improvement of the prevention and control programmes for CSFV.
PB Elsevier Science
SN 0378-1135
YR 2011
FD 2011-01-27
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/44485
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/44485
LA eng
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO Universidad Complutense
NO Junta de Castillla y León
NO Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino (España)
DS Docta Complutense
RD 28 abr 2025