RT Journal Article T1 Recent increase in tree damage and mortality and their spatial dependence on drought intensity in Mediterranean forests A1 Rebollo Orozco, Pedro A1 Moreno Fernández, Daniel A1 Cruz Alonso, Verónica A1 Gazol, Antonio A1 Rodríguez Rey, Marta A1 Astigarraga, Julen A1 Zavala, Miguel A. A1 Gómez Aparicio, Lorena A1 Andivia Muñoz, Enrique A1 Miguel Romero, Sofía A1 Ruiz Benito, Paloma AB Context. Global change is leading to more frequent and intense tree damage and mortality events. Drought-induced tree mortality is occurring worldwide leading to broad-scale events, but the spatial patterns of tree damage and mortality, their underlying drivers and their variation over time is largely unknown. Objectives. We investigated the spatial patterns of tree damage and mortality across Mediterranean forests of the Iberian Peninsula, the underlying effects of stand structure and climate, and how the spatial patterns and relationships with underlying drivers changed over time. Methods. We used the Spanish Forest Inventory to analyse the autocorrelation in tree damage and mortality across forest types, hurdle-gamma models to quantify the effect of stand structure and climate on tree damage and mortality, and cross-correlograms to assess their spatial dependence and its change over time. Results. We observed a greater magnitude and a stronger autocorrelation in tree damage than mortality, with positive aggregation up to 20 kms. There was a spatial dependence between tree damage and mortality with their drivers, with spatial aggregation increasing with water availability, drought intensity and stand structure. The spatial dependence of tree damage and mortality with the underlying drivers increased over time, particularly for drought intensity. Conclusions. Our results suggest that the combined effect of intense competition and drought could favour more extensive die-off and tree mortality events, providing key information for identifying vulnerable areas and the planning of adaptation measures. PB Springer Nature SN 0921-2973 YR 2024 FD 2024-02-16 LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/119021 UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/119021 LA eng NO Rebollo, P., Moreno-Fernández, D., Cruz-Alonso, V., Gazol, A., Rodríguez-Rey, M., Astigarraga, J., Zavala, M. A., Gómez-Aparicio, L., Andivia, E., Miguel-Romero, S., & Ruiz-Benito, P. (2024). Recent increase in tree damage and mortality and their spatial dependence on drought intensity in Mediterranean forests. Landscape Ecology, 39(3). https://doi.org/10.1007/S10980-024-01837-9 NO Open Access funding provided thanks to the CRUE-CSIC agreement with Springer Nature. PRO and PRB are funded by the University of Alcalá “Ayudas para la realización de Proyectos para potenciar la Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación” and PRO by an assistant professor grant funded by the Complutense University of Madrid. The Spanish Ministry of Science supported DMF through the “Juan de la Cierva Formación” program (FJC2018-037870-I). VCA and MRR are supported by the Ministry of Universities, Spain, and Next Generation-EU, with a “Maria Zambrano” fellowship. AG is supported by the “Ramon y Cajal” Program of the Spanish MICINN under Grant RyC2020- 030647-I, and by CSIC and Science and Innovation Ministry under grants PIE-20223AT003 and PID2021-123675OB-C43, respectively. LGA is supported by the Ministry of Science and Innovation (RTI2021-128907OB-I00). JA was supported by a FPI fellowship of the Department of Education of the Basque Government. PRO, PRB, VCA, AG, MRR, JA, MAZ are funded by the Science and Innovation Ministry (subproject LARGE, Nº PID2021-123675OB-C41). PRO, PRB, EA, are funded by ADAPTAMIX (FEDER/Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation MCIN/AEI/https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033, PID2019-110470RA-I00). EA, PRB and MAZ are funded by grant “Vulnerabilidad y riesgo de los ecosistemas de pino silvestre frente al cambio climático: Diseño de un sistema de alerta temprana y seguimiento” (MITECO. Organismo Autónomo de Parques Nacionales, Ref. 2794/2021). PRB was supported by the Community of Madrid Region under the framework of the multi-year Agreement with the University of Alcalá (Stimulus to Excellence for Permanent University Professors, EPU-INV/2020/010). NO Conferencia de Rectores de las Universidades Españolas NO Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España) NO Universidad de Alcalá de Henares NO Universidad Complutense de Madrid NO Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) NO European Commission NO Eusko Jaurlaritza NO Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico (España) NO Comunidad de Madrid DS Docta Complutense RD 3 abr 2025