RT Journal Article
T1 Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy
A1 Faustini, Giulia
A1 Soret, Marie
A1 Defossez, Alexandre
A1 Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
A1 Conte, Annamaria
A1 Tran, Annelise
AB African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting wild and domestic pigs, characterised by severe haemorrhagic symptoms and high mortality rates. Originally confined to Sub-Saharan Africa, ASF virus genotype II has spread to Europe since 2014, mainly affecting Eastern Europe, and progressing through wild boar migrations and human action. In January 2022, the first case of ASF, due to genotype II, was reported in North-western Italy, in a wild boar carcass. Thereafter, numerous positive wild boars were identified, indicating an expanding wild epidemic, severely threatening Italian pig farming and trade. This study focused on the mapping of the suitable habitats for wild boars and their potential dispersal corridors in Northern Italy, using species distribution models and landscape connectivity analysis. The resulting maps identified areas with higher likelihood of wild boar presence, highlighting their preferential pathways crossing Northern Italy. The distribution of ASF positive wild boars along the major corridors predicted by the model suggests the obtained maps as valuable support to decision-makers to improve ASF surveillance and carcass early detection, aiming for eradication. The applied framework can be easily replicated in other regions and countries.
PB Public Library of Science
YR 2025
FD 2025-01-30
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/117713
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/117713
LA eng
NO Faustini, G., Soret, M., Defossez, A., Bosch, J., Conte, A., & Tran, A. (2025). Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy. PloS one, 20(1), e0317577. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317577
NO Author Contributions Conceptualization: Giulia Faustini, Jaime Bosch, Annamaria Conte, Annelise Tran. Data curation: Giulia Faustini, Jaime Bosch, Annelise Tran. Formal analysis: Giulia Faustini, Marie Soret, Alexandre Defossez, Jaime Bosch, Annelise Tran. Funding acquisition: Giulia Faustini. Investigation: Giulia Faustini, Annelise Tran. Methodology: Giulia Faustini, Marie Soret, Alexandre Defossez, Jaime Bosch, Annelise Tran. Project administration: Giulia Faustini, Annelise Tran. Resources: Giulia Faustini, Annelise Tran. Software: Giulia Faustini, Marie Soret, Alexandre Defossez, Jaime Bosch, Annelise Tran. Supervision: Jaime Bosch, Annamaria Conte, Annelise Tran. Validation: Giulia Faustini, Jaime Bosch, Annelise Tran. Visualization: Giulia Faustini. Writing – original draft: Giulia Faustini. Writing – review & editing: Giulia Faustini, Marie Soret, Alexandre Defossez, Jaime Bosch, Annamaria Conte, Annelise Tran.
DS Docta Complutense
RD 7 abr 2025