RT Journal Article
T1 No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
A1 Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
A1 Polvani, Lorenzo M.
A1 Langematz, Ulrike
A1 Akiyoshi, Hideharu
A1 Bekki, Slimane
A1 Butchart, Neal
A1 Dameris, Martin
A1 Deushi, Makoto
A1 Hardiman, Steven C.
A1 Jöckel, Patrick
A1 Klekociuk, Andrew
A1 Marchand, Marion
A1 Michou, Martine
A1 Morgenstern, Olaf
A1 O'Connor, Fiona M.
A1 Oman, Luke D.
A1 Plummer, David A.
A1 Revell, Laura
A1 Rozanov, Eugene
A1 Saint-Martin, David
A1 Scinocca, John
A1 Stenke, Andrea
A1 Stone, Kane
A1 Yamashita, Yousuke
A1 Yoshida, Kohei
A1 Zeng, Guang
AB Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
PB European Geosciences Union
SN 1680-7316
YR 2018
FD 2018-08-13
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/93601
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/93601
LA eng
NO Ayarzagüena, B., Polvani, L. M., Langematz, U., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Butchart, N., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Hardiman, S. C., Jöckel, P., Klekociuk, A., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., O'Connor, F. M., Oman, L. D., Plummer, D. A., Revell, L., Rozanov, E., Saint-Martin, D., Scinocca, J., Stenke, A., Stone, K., Yamashita, Y., Yoshida, K., and Zeng, G.: No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11277–11287, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018, 2018.
NO European Research council
NO Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
DS Docta Complutense
RD 1 sept 2024