RT Journal Article
T1 Large impacts, past and future, of ozone‐depleting substances on Brewer‐Dobson circulation trends: a multimodel assessment
A1 Polvani, L. M.
A1 Wang, L.
A1 Ábalos Álvarez, Marta
A1 Butchart, N.
A1 Chipperfield, M. P.
A1 Dameris, M.
A1 Deushi, M.
A1 Dhomse, S. S.
A1 Jöckel, P.
A1 Stone, K. A.
AB Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases(notably CO_(2)), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcingscenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) inclimate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depletingsubstances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with differentforcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of therelative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end, we hereanalyze—over identical past and future periods—the output from 20 similarly forced models, gatheredfrom two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multimodel analysis revealsthat ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the twodecades 1980–2000.We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasingconcentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until theyear 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impactof increasing CO_(2). As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via thedepletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemisphericasymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.
PB American Geophysical Union
SN 2169-897X
YR 2019
FD 2019-07-02
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108238
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108238
LA eng
NO Polvani, L. M., Wang, L., Abalos, M., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., et al. (2019). Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multimodel assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 6669–6680. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029516
NO Atraccion de Talento de la Comunidad de Madrid (2016-T2/AMB-1405)Project STEADY (CGL2017-83198-R)Artículo firmado por 15 autores.
NO Fudan University
NO National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
NO Comunidad de Madrid
NO Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (España)
NO Met Office Hadley Centre Programme - BEIS
NO Met Office Hadley Centre Programme - Defra
NO European Commission
NO NZ Governments Strategic Science Investment Fund (SSIF)
NO Royal Society of New Zealand
DS Docta Complutense
RD 8 abr 2025