RT Journal Article
T1 Potential output and cyclically adjusted balance: an application of the updated Okun method to Spain (1987-2022)
A1 Villanueva Cortés, Paloma
A1 Cárdenas Del Rey, Luis
A1 Ruiz Gómez, Juan Rafael
AB The estimation of potential output is at the heart of the ongoing debate on the reformulation of fiscal rules in the European Union as it is an essential variable for their application. Spain constitutes a striking case, with a small and even positive output gap along with one of the highest unemployment rates in the European Union. To resolve this contradiction, in this article we estimate the potential output of the Spanish economy for the period 1987Q2–2022Q4 by means of the Updated Okun Method. Our results indicate that both the output gap and the cyclically adjusted balance are much higher than what European institutions estimate. Consequently, Spain has much more fiscal space to implement expansionary fiscal policies.
PB Routledge ; Taylor & Francis
SN 0953-8259
YR 2024
FD 2024-03-12
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102682
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/102682
LA eng
NO Cardenas, L., Villanueva, P. and Ruiz, J. R. (2024) ‘Potential Output and Cyclically Adjusted Balance: An Application of the Updated Okun Method to Spain (1987–2022)’, Review of Political Economy, pp. 1–21. doi: 10.1080/09538259.2024.2324860.
DS Docta Complutense
RD 6 abr 2025