RT Book, Section
T1 Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling
A1 Ríos Insúa, David
A1 Banks, David
A1 Ríos, Jesús
A1 González Ortega, Jorge
AB We argue that adversarial risk analysis may be incorporated into the structured expert judgement modelling toolkit for cases in which we need to forecast the actions of competitors based on expert knowledge. This is relevant in areas such as cybersecurity, security, defence and business competition. As a consequence, we present a structured approach to facilitate the elicitation of probabilities over the actions of other intelligent agents by decomposing them into multiple, but simpler, assessments later combined together using a rationality model of the adversary to produce a final probabilistic forecast. We then illustrate key concepts and modelling strategies of this approach to support its implementation.
PB Springer Link
SN 9783030464738
SN 9783030464745
SN 0884-8289
SN 2214-7934
YR 2021
FD 2021
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/105922
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/105922
LA eng
NO Insua, D. R., Banks, D., Ríos, J., & González-Ortega, J. Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling. Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, Insua, D. R., Banks, D., Ríos, J., & González-Ortega, J. Adversarial risk analysis as a decomposition method for structured expert judgement modelling. Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis,  2021: 293: 179-196.179-196.
DS Docta Complutense
RD 8 abr 2025