RT Journal Article
T1 Remote Interactions between tropical cyclones: The case of Hurricane Michael and Leslie's high predictability uncertainty
A1 López Reyes, Mauricio
A1 González Alemán, Juan Jesús
A1 Calvo Sancho, Carlos
A1 Bolgiani, Pedro Mariano
A1 Sastre Marugán, Mariano
A1 Martín, M.L.
AB The study explores Hurricane Michael's impact on Hurricane Leslie's trajectory predictability using ECMWF and NCEP ensemble systems. A clustering method focused on tropical cyclones is used to identify potential paths for Leslie: Cluster 1 accurately predicted Leslie's direction towards the Iberian Peninsula, whereas Clusters 2 and 3 indicated a southern recurve near the Canary Islands. Analysis of potential vorticity and irrotational wind at upper levels showed a significant interaction between Michael, ridge, and trough across the jet stream from +12 h after initialization. Cluster 1 showed a stronger Michael promoting upper-level wind divergence greatest, modifying the jet stream configuration around the ridge and downstream. Alterations in the jet stream's configuration, functioning as a waveguide, propagated downstream, guiding Leslie towards the Iberian Peninsula. Clusters 2 and 3 indicated the trough's failure to incorporate Leslie, resulting in a recurve of the trajectory around the Azores anticyclone. This research enhances comprehension of the interaction between two tropical cyclones via synoptic Rossby wave flow. Moreover, the conceptual framework can aid operational meteorologists in identifying the sources of uncertainty, particularly in track forecasts under synoptic conditions analogous to those examined in this study.
PB Elsevier
SN 0169-8095
YR 2024
FD 2024-12
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/115466
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/115466
LA eng
NO López-Reyes, M., et al. «Remote Interactions between Tropical Cyclones: The Case of Hurricane Michael and Leslie’s High Predictability Uncertainty». Atmospheric Research, vol. 311, diciembre de 2024, p. 107697. DOI.org (Crossref), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107697
NO PRE2020-092343
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
NO European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
NO Instituto Frontera AC
DS Docta Complutense
RD 20 abr 2025