RT Journal Article
T1 Performance of an impact-based earthquake early warning system in the Alboran sea
A1 Escudero Palencia, Lucía
A1 Zollo, Aldo
A1 Mattesini, Maurizio
A1 Rae, Raffaele
A1 Elia, Luca
A1 Colombelli, Simona
A1 Buforn Peiró, Vicenta María Elisa
AB This article presents the implementation and testing of a new P-wave shaking-forecastbased earthquake early warning system (EEWS) at the Ibero-Maghrebian region (IMR). The method integrates peak ground velocity (PGV) predictions derived from observed P-wave amplitudes with region-specific ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to facilitate real-time mapping of the potential damage zone. We determined empirical relationships between PGV and P-wave peak amplitudes (in acceleration, velocity, and displacement) and magnitude, along with the development of a GMPE for Mw >= 4 earthquakes in the IMR. These relationships are validated in the EEWS application using data from the 2016 Alboran Sea seismic series (Mw 5.0-6.4), which showed minimal discrepancies in origin time, epicenter location, and magnitude estimates compared to previous studies. A retrospective performance analysis for the Mw 6.4 mainshock indicated lead times of 14-62 sat a PGV threshold of 0.20 cm/s, with lead times increasing with distance. At a higher threshold of 0.60 cm/s, the lead time was 20 s for distances up to 170 km. The accuracy of impact predictions improved overtime, with successful alerts rising from 72% to 90% as the final predictions were made. Despite some limitations due to focusing on moderate-magnitude earthquakes (Mw <= 6:4), the EEWS method has proven effective for offshore events in areas with sparse instrumentation.
PB Seismological Society of America
SN 0895-0695
YR 2025
FD 2025-11-01
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/131500
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/131500
LA eng
NO Escudero, L., A. Zollo, M. Mattesini, R. Rea, L. Elia, S. Colombelli, and E. Buforn (2025). Performance of an Impact-Based Earthquake Early Warning System in the Alboran Sea, Seismol. Res. Lett. 96, 3063–3075, doi: 10.1785/0220240474.
NO © Seismological Society of America;Programa PON‐AIM1834927
NO European Commission
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
NO Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca (Italia)
DS Docta Complutense
RD 14 may 2026