RT Journal Article
T1 Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea
A1 Ito, Satoshi
A1 Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
A1 Jeong, Hyunkyu
A1 Aguilar Vega, Cecilia
A1 Park, Jonghoon
A1 Martínez Avilés, Marta
A1 Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
AB Since the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R0) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R0 ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R0 ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.
PB MPDI
SN 1999-4915
YR 2022
FD 2022-12-13
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/73200
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/73200
LA eng
DS Docta Complutense
RD 17 sept 2024