%0 Journal Article
%A Del Río, Sara
%A Canas, Ricardo
%A Cano, Eusebio
%A Cano Ortiz, Ana
%A Musarella, Carmelo Maria
%A Pinto Gomes, Carlos
%A Penas, Angel
%T Modelling the impacts of climte change on hábitat suitabilityy and vulnerability in deciduous forest in Spain
%D 2021
%@ 1470-160X
%U https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/122161
%X Global change is expected to impact on the distribution and abundance of forests. Spain represents the south western limit of distribution for several types of deciduous forests and, as part of the Mediterranean Basin, it has  all theb characteristics to be affected by climate change. This study analyses the effects of climate change on  habitat suitability and vulnerability in four categories of deciduous forests: Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea  (Matt.) Leibl., Quercus robur L. and Betula celtiberica Rothm. and Vasc. The approach combines an ensemble  platform for species distribution models (SDMs) using three algorithms applied to four global circulation models  (GCMs) driven by two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Bioclimatic, biogeographic, soil and  topographic variables were taken into consideration as predictors to build 320 single distribution models.  Ensemble-forecasting models were then produced for each forest category and RCPs by computing a consensus of  single-model projections. The adapted proposal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was  also applied to deal with the uncertainty and notify the likelihood of the outcomes. The study also highlights the importance and usefulness of conducting analyses at the biogeographic  level, since the effects of climate change may be different and require management and conservation policies at  local level.
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