RT Journal Article
T1 The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere‐troposphere coupling
A1 Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
A1 Butler, Amy H.
A1 Charlton Pérez, Andrew J.
A1 Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
A1 Baldwin, Mark P.
A1 Dunn Sigouin, Etienne
A1 Furtado, Jason C.
A1 Garfinkel, Chaim I.
A1 Hitchcock, Peter
A1 Karpechko, Alexey Yu
A1 Kim, Hera
A1 Knight, Jeff
A1 Lang, Andrea L.
A1 Lim, Eun‐Pa
A1 Marshall, Andrew
A1 Roff, Greg
A1 Schwartz, Chen
A1 Simpson, Isla R.
A1 Son, Seok‐Woo
A1 Taguchi, Masakazu
AB The stratosphere can have a significant impact on winter surface weather on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales. This study evaluates the ability of current operational S2S prediction systems to capture two important links between the stratosphere and troposphere: (1) changes in probabilistic prediction skill in the extratropical stratosphere by precursors in the tropics and the extratropical troposphere and (2) changes in surface predictability in the extratropics after stratospheric weak and strong vortex events. Probabilistic skill exists for stratospheric events when including extratropical tropospheric precursors over the North Pacific and Eurasia, though only a limited set of models captures the Eurasian precursors. Tropical teleconnections such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation increase the probabilistic skill of the polar vortex strength, though these are only captured by a limited set of models. At the surface, predictability is increased over the United States, Russia, and the Middle East for weak vortex events, but not for Europe, and the change in predictability is smaller for strong vortex events for all prediction systems. Prediction systems with poorly resolved stratospheric processes represent this skill to a lesser degree. Altogether, the analyses indicate that correctly simulating stratospheric variability and stratosphere‐troposphere dynamical coupling are critical elements for skillful S2S wintertime predictions.
PB American Geophysical Union
SN 2169-897X
YR 2019
FD 2019
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91775
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/91775
LA eng
NO Domeisen, D. I., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Ayarzagüena, B., Baldwin, M. P., Dunn-Sigouin, E. et al. (2020). The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD030923. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923
NO Academy of Finland
NO European Commission
NO Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
NO National Research Foundation of Korea
NO National Science Foundation
NO Swiss National Science Foundation
DS Docta Complutense
RD 13 abr 2025