RT Journal Article
T1 High- vs. low-rate of sea level change fluvial floods: Past analogues for future forecast
A1 Santisteban Navarro, Juan Ignacio
A1 Mediavilla López, Rosa María
A1 Val Peón, Cristina
A1 López Saez, José Antonio
A1 Reicherter, Klaus
AB Projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios predict a clear rise of the sea level in the near future, together with a decrease in frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods, which are one of the main sources of sediments for some coasts, as response to a decrease in rainfall.We present a fluvial flood series for the last 17,000 yrs. obtained from cores retrieved in a former restricted embayment by using a multiproxy approach (geochemistry, sedimentology, stratigraphy, palynology), with sub-decadal time-resolution. Flood subfacies are defined by their siliciclastic and saline components. Time distribution reveals that fluvial floods controlled sedimentation rates. Comparison against other records of the Southern Iberian Peninsula allows to identify common periods. For the end of the Pleistocene, low frequency floods are associated to Meltwater Pulses or Heinrich events. During early Holocene, there is a noticeable increase in flood frequency, reaching their maximum at the Holocene Thermal Maximum. The mid- to late-Holocene is characterized by a flood frequency clearly lower than the early Holocene one, but higher than the late Pleistocene one.Millennial scale changes in insolation controlled atmospheric moisture which, in turn, determined evolution of floods. Centennial scale changes in irradiance were responsible of shorter-term flood episodes over moisture changes.These results do not fully agree with the expected evolution of floods under IPCC projected scenarios, so further research is needed to improve our knowledge about flood behaviour.
PB Elsevier
SN 0921-8181
YR 2025
FD 2025-03
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/118186
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/118186
LA eng
NO Santisteban, J. I., Mediavilla, R., Val-Peón, C., López-Sáez, J. A., & Reicherter, K. (2025). High- vs. low-rate of sea level change fluvial floods: Past analogues for future forecast. Global and Planetary Change, 246, 104723
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
NO Instituto Geológico y Minero
DS Docta Complutense
RD 10 abr 2025