RT Journal Article
T1 The Teleconnection of the Tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on Inter-Annual to Centennial Time Scales: A Review of Recent Findings
A1 Kucharski, Fred
A1 Parvin, Afroja
A1 Rodríguez de Fonseca, María Belén
A1 Farneti, Riccardo
A1 Martín Rey, Marta
A1 Polo Sánchez, Irene
A1 Mohino Harris, Elsa
A1 Losada Doval, Teresa
A1 Mechoso, Carlos R.
AB In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Nino (Nina) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Nina (El Nino) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Nina/El Nino development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO_2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.
PB MDPI AG
SN 2073-4433
YR 2016
FD 2016-02
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/24459
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/24459
LA eng
NO 1. Ropelewski, C.P.; Halpert, M.S. Global and regional scale precipitation associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev. 1987, 115, 1606–1626.2. Duan, W.; Wei, C. The “sping predictability barrier” for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: results from a fully coupled model. Int. J Clim. 2012, 33, 1280–1292.3. Chen, D.; Cane, M.A.; Kaplan, A.; Zebiak, Z.E.; Huang, D. Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 2004, 428, 733–736.4. Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Polo, I.; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Losada, T.; Mohino, E.; Mechoso, C.R.; Kucharski, F. Are Atlantic Niños enhancing Pacific ENSO events in recent decades? Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36, L20705.5. Wang, C.; Kucharski, F.; Barimalala, R.; Bracco, A. Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans: A review of recent findings. Meteorol. Z. 2009, 18, 445–454.6. Ding, H.; Keenlyside, N.S.; Latif, M. Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Clim. Dyn. 2012, 38, 1965–1972.7. Frauen, C.; Dommenget, D. Influences of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans on the predictability of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39, L02706.8. Jansen, M.F.; Dommenget, D.; Keenlyside, N.S. Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in a Conceptual Framework. J. Clim. 2009, 22, 550–567.9. Polo, I.; Martin-Rey, M.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Kucharski, F.; Mechoso, C.R. Processes in the Pacific La Niña onset triggered by the Atlantic Niño. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 44, 115–131.10. Martin-Rey M.; Polo, I.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Kucharski, F. Changes in the inter-annual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing. Sci. Mar. 2012, 76, doi:10.3989/scimar.03610.19A.11. Martin-Rey, M.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Polo, I.; Kucharski, F. On the Atlantic-Pacific Niños connection: A multidecadal modulated mode. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 43, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2305-3.12. Martin-Rey, M.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Polo, I. Atlantic opportunities for ENSO prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2015, 42, 6802–6810.13. Keenlyside, N.S.; Ding, H.; Latif, M. Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40, 2278–2283.14. Ham, Y.-Y.; Kug, J.-S.;Park, J. Y.; Jin, F.-F. Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niño/Southern Oscillation events. Nat. Geosci. 2013, 6, doi:10.1038/NGEO1686. 15. Ham, Y.-Y., Kug, J.-S.; Park, J. Y.; Jin, F-F. Two distinct roles of Atlantic SSTs in ENSO variability: North tropical Atlantic SST and Atlantic Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2013, 40, 4012–4017.16. Kucharski, F.; Syed, F.S.; Burhan, A.; Farah, I.; Gohar A. Tropical Atlantic influence on Pacific variability and mean state in the twentieth century in observations and CMIP5. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 44, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2228-z.17. Sasaki, W.; Doi, T.; Richards, K.J.; Masumoto, Y. Impact of the equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature on the tropical Pacific in a CGCM. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 43, 2539–2552.18. Dong, B.W.; Sutton, R.T. Enhancement of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability by a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled GCM. J. Cliamte 2007, 20, 4920-4939.19. Lu, R.; Chen, W.; Dong, B. How does a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation lead to an intensification of the ENSO-south Asian summer monsoon interaction? Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, 35, L08706.20. Timmermann, A.; Okumura, Y.; An, S.-I.; Clement, A.; Dong, B.; Guilyardi, E.; Hu, A.; Jungclaus, J.H.; Renold, M.; Stocker, T.F.; et al. The influence of aweakening of the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. J. Clim. 2007, 20, 4899–4919.21. Zhang, R.; Delworth, T.L. Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on north pacific climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2007, 34, L23708.22. Kucharski, F.; Ikram, F.; Molteni, F.; Farneti, F.; Kang, I.-S.; No, H.H.; King, M.P.; Giuliani, G.; Mogensen, K. Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability. Clim. Dyn. 2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2705-z.23. Meehl, G.A.; Hu, A.; Santer, B.D. The mid-1970s climate shift in the Pacific and the relative roles of forced versus inherent decadal variability. J. Clim. 2009 22, 780–792.24. Graham, N.E. Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results. Clim. Dyn 1994, 10, 135–162.25. Dong. B.; Lu, R. Interdecadal Enhancement of theWalker Circulation over the Tropical Pacific in the Late 1990s. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 2013, 30, 247–262.26. Miller, A.J.; Cayan, D.R.; Barnett, T.P.; Graham, N.E.; Oberhuber, J.M. Interdecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean: model response to observed heat fluxes and wind stress anomalies. Clim. Dyn. 1994, 9, 187–302.27. England, M.H.; McGregor, S.; Spence, P.; Meehl, G.A.; Timmermann, A.; Cai,W.; Gupta, A.S.; McPhaden, M.J.; Purich, A.; Santoso, A. Recent intensification of wind- driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Clim. Change 2014, 4, 222–227.28. Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S.-P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 2013, 501, 403–407.29. Trenberth, K.E.; Fasullo, J.T. An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth’s Future 2013, 1, 19-32.30. Kang, I.-S.; No, H.-H.; Kucharski, F. ENSO Amplitude Modulation Associated with the Mean SST Changes in the Tropical Central Pacific Induced by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. J. Clim. 2014, 27, 7911–7920.31. McGregor, S.; Timmermann, A.; Stuecker, M. F.; England, M. H.; Merrifield, M.; Jin, F.-F.; Chikamoto, Y. Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming. Nat. Clim. Change 2014, 4, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2330. 32. Li, X.; Xie, S.-P.; Gille, S.T.; Yoo, C. Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the last three decades. Nat. Clim. Change 2015, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2840.33. Chikamoto, Y.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.; Ishii, M.; Mochizuki, T. Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012, 39, doi:10.1029/2012GL053901.34. Chikamoto, Y.;Timmermann, A.; Luo, J.-J.; Mochizuki, T.; Kimoto, M.; Watanabe, M.; Ishii, M.; Xie, S.-P.; Jin, F.-F. Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability. Nat. Commun. 2015, 6, doi:10.1038/ncomms7869.35. Farneti, R.; Molteni, F.; Kucharski, F. Pacific interdecadal variability driven by tropical-extratropical interactions. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 42, 3337–3355.36. Farneti, R.; Dwivedi, S.; Kucharski; Molteni, F.; Griffies, S.M. On Pacific Subtropical Cell Variability over the Second Half of the Twentieth Century. J. Clim. 2014, 27, 7102–7112.37. Kucharski, F.; Kang, I.-S.; Farneti, R.; Feudale, L. Tropical Pacific response to 20th century Atlantic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38, L03702.38. Vecchi, G.A.; Clement, A.; Soden, B.J. Examining the tropical Pacific’s response to global warming. EOS Trans. AGU 2008, 89, doi:10.1029/2008EO0900002.39. Rayner, N.A.; Parker, D.E.; Horton, E.B.; Folland, C.K.; Alexander, L.V.; Rowell, D.P.; Kent, E.C.; Kaplan, A. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.40. Compo G.P.; Whitaker, J.S.; Sardeshmukh, P.D.; Matsui, N.; Allan, R.J.; Yin, X.; Gleason, B.E.; Vose, R.S.; Rutledge, G.; Bessemoulin, P.; et al. The 20th century reanalysis project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011, 137, 1–28.41. Carton, J.A.; Giese, B. A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Mon. Weather Rev. 2008 136, 2999–3017.42. SODA: Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. Available online: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/soda-simple-ocean-data-assimilation (accessed on 7 November 2014).43. Kucharski, F.; Molteni, F.; King, M.P.; Farneti, R.; Kang, I.S.; Feudale, L. On the need of intermediate complexity general circulation models. BAMS 2013, 94, 25–30.44. Madec, G. NEMO Ocean Engine. Note du Pole de modalisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL): Paris, France, 2008; Volume 27, ISSN No 1288–1619.45. Valcke, S. OASIS3 User Guide (prism_2-5); CERFACS Technical Report 2006 TR/CMGC/06/73, PRISM Report No 3; CERFACS: Toulouse, France, 2006; p. 60.46. Fichefet, T.; Morales Maqueda, M.A. Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J. Geophys. Res. 1997, 102, 12609–12646.47. Kroeger, J.; Kucharski, F. Sensitivity of ENSO characteristics to a new interactive flux correction scheme in a coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn. 2011, 36,119–137.48. Losada, T.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Polo, I; Janicot, S.; Gervois, S.; Chauvin, F.; Ruti, P.M. Tropical response to the Atlantic Equatorial mode: AGCM multimodel approach. Clim. Dyn. 2010, 35, 45–52.49. Ruiz-Barradas, A.; Carton, J.A.; Nigam, S. Structure of inter-annual- to-decadal climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector. J. Clim. 2000, 13, 3285–3297.50. Losada T.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B. Tropical Atmospheric Response to Decadal Changes in the Atlantic Equatorial Mode. Clim. Dyn. 2015, doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2897-251. Chiang, J.C.H.; Kushnir, Y.; Zebiak, S.E. Interdecadal changes in the eastern Pacific ITCZ variability and its influence on the Atlantic ITCZ. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000, 27, 3687–3690.52. Parker, D.; Folland, C.; Scaife, A.; Knight, J.; Colman, A.; Baines, P.; Dong, B. Decadal to multidecadal variability and the climate change background. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112, doi:10.1029/2007JD008411.53. Trenberth, K.; Shea, D.J. Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2005 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL026894.54. Yang, C.; Giese, B.S.; Wu, L. Ocean Dynamics and Tropical Pacific Climate Change in Ocean Reanalyses and Coupled Climate Models. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 2014, 119, doi:10.1002/2014JC009979.55. Mohino, E.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Losada, T.; Gervois S.; Janicot, S.; Bader, J. Changes in the inter-annual SST-forced signals onWest African rainfall. AGCM intercomparison. Clim. Dyn. 2011, 37, 1707–1725.56. Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Janicot, S.; Mohino, E.; Losada, T.; Bader, J. Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2010, 12, 67–74.57. Torralba, V.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Mohino, E.; Losada, T. The non-stationary influence of the Atlantic and Pacific Niños on North Eastern South American rainfall. Front. Earth Sci. 2015, 3, doi:10.3389/feart.2015.00055.58. Losada, T.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Kucharski, F. Tropical influence on the summer Mediterranean climate. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 2012, 13, 36–42.59. Richter, I; Xie, S.-P.; Behera, S.K.; Doi, T.; Masumoto, Y. Equatorial Atlantic variability and its relation to mean state biases in CMIP5. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 42, 171–188.60. Mechoso, C.R.; Robertson, A.W.; Barth, N.; Davey, M.K.; Delecluse, P.; Gent, P.R.; Ineson, S.; Kirtman, B.; Latif, M.; le Treut, H.; et al. The seasonal cycle over the Tropical Pacific in General Circulation Models. Mon. Weather Rev. 1995, 123, 2825–2838.61. Guilyardi, E.; Bellenger, H.; Collins, M.; Ferrett, S.; Cai,W.;Wittenberg, A. A first look at ENSO in CMIP5. Clivar Exch. 2012, 17, 29–32.
NO c 2016 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open accessarticle distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons by Attribution(CC-BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).© 2016 MDPI AG.We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that helped to improve the manuscript. Author Contributions: The analysis of observations and the model data have been performed by Fred Kucharski and Afroja Parvin. Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca, Marta Martin-Rey, Irene Polo, Elsa Mohino, Teresa Losada, Carlos-Roberto Mechoso and Riccardo Farneti contributed equally to the discussion of the relevant literature in this review and helped to improve the manuscript.
DS Docta Complutense
RD 27 jul 2024