RT Journal Article
T1 Use of Network Analysis and Spread Models to Target Control Actions for Bovine Tuberculosis in a State from Brazil
A1 Cardenas, Nicolas Cespedes
A1 Pozo, Pilar
A1 Lopes, Francisco Paulo Nunes
A1 Grisi Filho, José H. H.
A1 Alvarez, Julio
A1 Álvarez Sánchez, Julio
AB Livestock movements create complex dynamic interactions among premises that can be represented, interpreted, and used for epidemiological purposes. These movements are a very important part of the production chain but may also contribute to the spread of infectious diseases through the transfer of infected animals over large distances. Social network analysis (SNA) can be used to characterize cattle trade patterns and to identify highly connected premises that may act as hubs in the movement network, which could be subjected to targeted control measures in order to reduce the transmission of communicable diseases such as bovine tuberculosis (TB). Here, we analyzed data on cattle movement and slaughterhouse surveillance for detection of TB-like lesions (TLL) over the 2016–2018 period in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) in Brazil with the following aims: (i) to characterize cattle trade describing the static full, yearly, and monthly snapshots of the network contact trade, (ii) to identify clusters in the space and contact networks of premises from which animals with TLL originated, and (iii) to evaluate the potential of targeted control actions to decrease TB spread in the cattle population of RS using a stochastic metapopulation disease transmission model that simulated within-farm and between-farm disease spread. We found heterogeneous densities of premises and animals in the study area. The analysis of the contact network revealed a highly connected (~94%) trade network, with strong temporal trends, especially for May and November. The TLL cases were significantly clustered in space and in the contact network, suggesting the potential for both local (e.g., fence-to-fence) and movement-mediated TB transmission. According to the disease spread model, removing the top 7% connected farms based on degree and betweenness could reduce the total number of infected farms over three years by >50%. In conclusion, the characterization of the cattle network suggests that highly connected farms may play a role in TB dissemination, although being close to infected farms was also identified as a risk factor for having animals with TLL. Surveillance and control actions based on degree and betweenness could be useful to break the transmission cycle between premises in RS.
PB MPDI
SN 2076-2607
YR 2021
FD 2021-01-22
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7386
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7386
LA eng
NO Universidad Complutense de Madrid, sponsored by the CAPES
DS Docta Complutense
RD 5 abr 2025