RT Journal Article T1 Global change in microcosms: Environmental and societal predictors of land cover change on the Atlantic Ocean Islands A1 Norder, Sietze J. A1 Lima, R. F. de A1 Nascimento, Lea de A1 Lim, Jun Y. A1 Fernández Palacios, José María A1 Romeiras, María M. A1 Bento Elias, Rui A1 Cabezas Fuentes, Francisco José A1 Catarino, Luís A1 Ceriaco, Luis M.P. A1 Castilla-Beltrán, Álvaro A1 Gabriel, Rosalina A1 Menezes de Sequeira, Miguel A1 Rijsdijk, Kenneth F. A1 Nogué, Sandra A1 Kissling, W. Daniel A1 Van Loon, E. Emiel A1 Hall, Marcus A1 Matos, Margarida A1 Borges, Paulo A. V, AB Islands contribute enormouslytoglobalbiodiversity,buttheir speciesandecosystems arehighly threatened and often confined to small patches of remaining native vegetation. Islands are thus ideal microcosms to study the local dimensions of global change. While human activities have drastically transformed most islands,the extentto which societal and environmental conditions shape differences in land cover remains unclear. This study analyses the role of contrasting environmental and societal conditions in affecting the extent of native vegetation cover on 30 islands in five Atlantic Ocean archipelagos (Azores, Madeira, Canary Islands, Cape Verde, Gulf of Guinea Islands). We adopt a mixed-method approach in which we combine a statistical analysis of environmental and societal variables with a qualitative reconstruction of historical socioeconomic trends. Statistical results indicate that terrain ruggedness predominantly shapes the extent of remainingnativevegetationcover, suggestingthattopography constrainshuman impactsonbiodiversity. Overall, environmental variables better explain differences in native vegetation cover between islands than societal variables like human population density. However, throughout history, islands experienced large changes in demography and socioeconomic trends, and therefore modern patterns of native vegetation might also partly reflect these past conditions. While anthropocene narratives often present humans as a global geophysicalforce,the results show thatlocal environmental context strongly mitigated the degree of human impact on biodiversity. These findings call for integrative approaches to understand the contributions of local human-environment interactions to ongoing global change. PB Elsevier SN 2213-3054 YR 2020 FD 2020-04-25 LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/6423 UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/6423 LA eng NO Unión Europea. Horizonte 2020 NO Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal) NO University of Amsterdam. Faculty Research Cluster ‘Global Ecology’ NO MACDIV NO Universidade de Lisboa DS Docta Complutense RD 8 abr 2025