RT Journal Article
T1 Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited
A1 Manzini, E.
A1 Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
A1 Calvo Fernández, Natalia
A1 Matei, D.
AB Nonlinearities and asymmetries of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) stratospheric pathway to the North Atlantic and Europe are examined in large ensembles conducted with fully coupled climate models during wintertime. The analysis is centered on historical experiments of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE, 95 members) and expanded to six other ensembles of more limited size. In MPI-GE, significant responses are obtained for each ENSO phase and three different intensities (weak, moderate and strong). Overall, linear relationships are found for either El Niño or La Niña key diagnostics that characterize the pathway. These relationships are generally weaker for the cold La Niña than for the warm El Niño so that asymmetries between them develop as the events intensify. Specifically for strong events, the extra-tropical North Pacific and stratospheric responses are asymmetric, with larger responses for El Niño. In addition, the stratospheric asymmetry in strong events seems to contribute to the asymmetry in strong events in the North Atlantic—Europe response in the troposphere in late winter. The extra-tropical North Pacific response shows general agreement between MPI-GE and the other large ensembles. However, this agreement is not as large when other parts of the pathway are compared. Relatively high inter-model response spread confirms the typical model uncertainty found when examining atmospheric circulation responses which include the stratosphere in state-of-the-art climate models.
PB American Geophysical Union (AGU)
SN 2169-897X
SN 2169-8996
YR 2024
FD 2024-01-13
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/116571
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/116571
LA eng
NO Manzini, E., Ayarzagüena, B., Calvo, N., & Matei, D. (2024). Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of the ENSO Stratospheric Pathway to North Atlantic and Europe, Revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(2), e2023JD039992. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039992
NO Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF)
NO United States Department of Energy (DOE)
NO German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through JPI Climate/JPI Oceans NextG-Climate Science-ROADMAP
NO Unión Europea
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
NO Projekt DEAL
DS Docta Complutense
RD 7 abr 2025