RT Journal Article
T1 Characterization of spread in a mesoscale ensemble prediction system: multiphysics versus initial conditions
A1 Fernández González, Sergio
A1 Sastre Marugán, Mariano
A1 Valero Rodríguez, Francisco
A1 Merino, Andrés
A1 García Ortega, Eduardo
A1 Sánchez, José Luis
A1 Lorenzana, Jesús
A1 Martín, María Luisa
AB In this research, uncertainty associated with initial and boundary conditions is evaluated for short-term wind speed prediction in complex terrain. The study area is the Alaiz mountain range, a windy region in the northern Iberian Peninsula. A multiphysics and multiple initial and boundary condition ensemble prediction system (EPS) was generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Uncertainty of the EPS is analyzed using an index based on the spread between ensemble members, considering its behavior under different wind speed and direction events, and also during distinct atmospheric stability conditions. The results corroborate that physical parameterization uncertainty is greater for short-term forecasts (63.5%). However, it is also necessary to consider the uncertainty associated with initial conditions, not only for its quantitative importance (36.5%) but also for its behavior during thermal inversion conditions in the narrow valleys surrounded by mountains.
PB E Schweizerbartsche Verlags
SN 0941-2948
YR 2019
FD 2019
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13326
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/13326
LA eng
NO © 2018 The authors. This work was partially supported by research projects METEORISK (RTC-2014-1872-5), PCIN-2014-013- C07-04 and PCIN2016-080 (UE ERA-NET Plus NEWA Project), ESP2013-47816-C4-4-P, CGL2010- 15930, CGL2016-78702-C2-1-R and CGL2016-78702- C2-2-R, CGL2016-81828-REDT, and the Instituto de Matemática Interdisciplinar (IMI) of the Universidad Complutense. Special thanks go to Steven Hunter and Analisa Weston. To request the data, please contact S. Fernández-González (sfernandezg@aemet.es).
NO Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN)
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN)
NO UE ERA-NET Plus NEWA
NO IMI-Instituto de Matematica Interdisciplinar de la UCM
DS Docta Complutense
RD 8 jun 2025