RT Journal Article
T1 A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19
A1 Álvarez Mon, Melchor
A1 Ortega, Miguel A.
A1 Gasulla, Óscar
A1 Fortuny Profitós, Jordi
A1 Mazaira Font, Ferran A.
A1 Saurina, Pablo
A1 Monserrat, Jorge
A1 Plana, María N.
A1 Troncoso, Daniel
A1 Sanz Moreno, José
A1 Muñoz, Benjamin
A1 Arranz, Alberto
A1 Varona, Jose F.
A1 Lopez Escobar, Alejandro
A1 Asúnsolo del Barco, Angel
AB This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February–June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5–20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU–death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.
PB MPDI
SN 2075-4426
YR 2021
FD 2021
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7047
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7047
LA eng
NO ProA Capital
DS Docta Complutense
RD 27 abr 2026