RT Journal Article
T1 Assessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling
A1 De la Cruz, María Luisa
A1 Pozo Piñol, Pilar
A1 Grau, Anna
A1 Nacar, Jesús
A1 Bezos Garrido, Javier
A1 Pérez, Andrés
A1 Domínguez Rodríguez, Lucas José
A1 Sáez, José Luís
A1 Mínguez-González, Olga
A1 Juan Ferré, Lucía De
A1 Álvarez Sánchez, Julio
AB In spite of the efforts invested to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, the disease is still present inseveral developed countries, including Spain. Among the factors related with disease persistence in high prevalence areas, the lack of sensitivity of the screening test for detection of infected herds [single intradermal tuberculin (SIT) test] can play a major role. Here, a scenario tree model mimicking the diagnostic test scheme in place in the region of Castilla y Leon (Spain) was developed to estimate the probability of detecting bTB in an infected-non detected officially tuberculosis free (OTF) herd (herd sensitivity, HSe). In order to do so the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in the SIT test with/without post-mortem (detection of lesions and culture) confirmation in an infected herd was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation through @ RISK (Palisade Co, NY, USA). Uncertainty on the accuracy of the diagnostic tests was introduced in the model using distributions based on the literature. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the predicted number of SIT/post-mortem positive animals in infected herds with those observed in newly detected bTB-infected herds in the region in 2011–2015. The estimated HSe of the SIT test was 76.2% (95% probability interval: 19.8–97.6). According to the model, bTB infection would be then confirmed through culture in 65.3% (95% PI: 50.0–82.3) of the herds detected through the SIT test, so that overall the proportion of infected-nondetected OTF herds in which the infection could be confirmed after the initial SIT test was 49.6% (95% PI:9.75–80.3). The predicted HSe of both SIT test and culture was directly correlated with herd size. Results from the model suggest a moderate but highly variable HSe of the current surveillance system in place for bTB detection in OTF herds located in high prevalence areas, that could be maximized by performing multiple tests within a year as indicated in the Spanish eradication program (with a median SIT HSe of 87% when two consecutive tests were considered). In addition, these results highlight the usefulness of performing subsequent SIT tests to rule out infection in SIT-positive herds even when the causative agent cannot be isolated.
PB ELSEVIER SCI LTD
SN 0167-5877
YR 2019
FD 2019-11-05
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/93315
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/93315
LA eng
NO Financiación: MINECO: DI-15-08098; IJCI-2015-24805; RYC-2016-20422;  Comunidad de Madrid: S2013/ABI-2747; MiCIIN: RTI2018-096010-B-C22; Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NO Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
NO Comunidad de Madrid
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación
DS Docta Complutense
RD 4 ago 2024