RT Journal Article
T1 Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs
A1 Muñoz Pérez, Carolina
A1 Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
A1 Ito, Satoshi
A1 Martínez Avilés, Marta
A1 Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
AB African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.
PB MPDI
SN 2076-0817
YR 2022
FD 2022-01-08
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/73229
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/73229
LA eng
NO European Project H2020 VACDIVA
DS Docta Complutense
RD 7 abr 2025