RT Journal Article
T1 A novel entropy-based decision support framework for uncertainty resolution in the initial subjective evaluations of experts: The NATO enlargement problem
A1 Madjid Tavana, 
A1 Debora Di Caprio, 
A1 Aidan O'Connor, 
A1 Santos Arteaga, Francisco Javier
AB We introduce a novel decision support framework that allows decision makers (DMs) to assess the informativenessof a ranking of alternatives provided by different experts and to extrapolate additional evaluations based on the distributional bias and entropy inherent to those received from the experts. In the proposed framework, expert analystsrank several alternatives within opportunities versus threats space of potential evaluations. The resulting rankings ofalternatives vary among experts due to differences in the set of evaluation criteria chosen and to the subjectiveweights assigned by the experts to the criteria considered. As a result, DMs observe biases in the evaluations provided by the experts and variations in the degree of informativeness among alternatives. Thus, DMs must use the information available to them to assess the reliability of the ranking obtained from the experts' evaluations. In this regard,the distributional bias generated by the evaluations received will be used to define the dynamic structure of analgorithm that allows DMs to extrapolate additional expected evaluations and modify the initial ranking proposedby the experts accordingly. At the same time, the entropy generated by the evaluations will be used to validatethe reliability of the resulting rankings and to determine the stopping rule for the data generatingalgorithm. A numerical example based on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership enlargement problem is presented, where several teams of experts provide different evaluations on a set of applicantcountries. A battery of Monte Carlo simulations has been performed, and alternative biased approaches havebeen followed. The rankings obtained have been compared with those resulting from our framework
PB Elsevier
SN 0167-9236
YR 2015
FD 2015-06-01
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/113959
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/113959
LA eng
NO Tavana, M., Di Caprio, D., Santos-Arteaga, F. J., & O’Connor, A. (2015). A novel entropy-based decision support framework for uncertainty resolution in the initial subjective evaluations of experts: The NATO enlargement problem. Decision Support Systems, 74, 135-149. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.DSS.2015.04.001
DS Docta Complutense
RD 27 abr 2025