RT Journal Article
T1 Tropospheric Role in the Predictability of the Surface Impact of the 2018 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event
A1 González Alemán, Juan Jesús
A1 Grams, Christian M.
A1 Ayarzagüena Porras, Blanca
A1 Zurita Gotor, Pablo
A1 Gómara Cardalliaguet, Íñigo
A1 Domeisen, Daniela I. V.
A1 Rodríguez De Fonseca, María Belén
A1 Vitart, Frédéric
AB Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) can have a strong impact on the troposphere. Their fingerprint is often associated with the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and extreme weather with high societal impact. However, the mechanisms behind this downward impact are not well understood. We investigate this surface impact through its associated predictability limits, by studying the 2018 SSW event. We search for predictability barriers that occurred after the onset of the SSW and before its surface impact. It is found that dynamical tropospheric events consisting of two cyclogenesis events were the main reasons for these predictability barriers in the prediction of negative NAM/NAO anomalies reaching the surface. This work corroborates that individual synoptic events might constitute predictability barriers during the downward impact of SSW events, and thereby sheds light on stratosphere-troposphere coupling.
PB Wiley
SN 0094-8276
YR 2021
FD 2021-12-20
LK https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/4727
UL https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/4727
LA eng
NO CRUE-CSIC (Acuerdos Transformativos 2021)
NO Unión Europea. Horizonte 2020
NO Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (MICINN)
NO Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)
NO Helmholtz Association
NO Swiss National Science Foundation
DS Docta Complutense
RD 23 abr 2025