2026-08-19T05:41:24Zhttps://docta.ucm.es/rest/oai/request

oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/1262122025-11-20T01:06:43Zcom_20.500.14352_14col_20.500.14352_15

Exploring the impact of healthcare capacity and time delays in SIR epidemic model Kowalewska, Agnieszka Krawczyk,Joanna Bodnar, Marek Vela Pérez, María Delayed differential equations COVID-19 spread model SEIR model Health care capacity Local and global stability analysis Ciencias 12 Matemáticas In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model for the spread of COVID-19 that incorporates the capacity of the healthcare system. The model is governed by a set of delayed differential equations, with a focus on a healthcare capacity function inversely proportional to the size of the infectious compartment. While the properties of the model with constant healthcare capacity have been studied before in Krawczyk et al., (2022), we extend this analysis to the dynamic case. We establish conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium using a Lyapunov functional and investigate how the system’s trajectories depend on various time delay values. Additionally, we fit the model’s infectious compartment dynamics to Polish governmental data from autumn 2021. Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Depto. de Economía Financiera y Actuarial y Estadística Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales Instituto de Matemática Interdisciplinar (IMI) TRUE pub 2025-11-19T09:03:23Z 2025-11-19T09:03:23Z 2026 journal article VoR https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/126212 0378-4754 10.1016/j.matcom.2025.11.001 1872-7166 eng info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2021-2023/PID2023-146754NB-I00/ES/INTEGRACION DE MODELOS DINAMICOS, SIMULACION NUMERICA, OPTIMIZACION Y APRENDIZAJE AUTOMATICO EN TEMAS RELEVANTES PARA LA SOCIEDAD/ Kowalewska, A., Krawczyk, J., Bodnar, M., & Vela-Pérez, M. (2026). Exploring the impact of healthcare capacity and time delays in SIR epidemic model. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 241, 771-782. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2025.11.001 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ open access application/pdf Elsevier