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oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/415092025-07-07T13:03:58Zcom_20.500.14352_14col_20.500.14352_17

Modeling the stochastic dynamics of the aggregate stock in collapsed fisheries: The case of the Northern cod stock Maroto Fernández, José María Morán Cabré, Manuel Stochastic population dynamics Compensation Depensation Northern cod collapse Splines Demographic uncertainty Biomatemáticas Estadística aplicada Estadística matemática (Matemáticas) Peces Biología marina 2404 Biomatemáticas 1209 Estadística We are grateful to Noel Roy, Peter Shelton, and Carl Walters for their comments. We also appreciate the attention and comments of the seminar participants at the Centre for Fisheries Economics, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH), Bergen (2012), as well as the participants at the 2012 ISEE Conference, 2012 WFC Conference, and 2012 IIFET Conference. Motivated by the evidence that many collapsed stocks have failed to recover despite the fact that fishing mortality has been reduced, or even when a moratorium is in effect, we develop a methodological approach using splines to analyze the stochastic population dynamics of fish stocks at low stock levels. Considering the aggregate Northern cod stock by way of illustration, we find that the species’ lack of recovery, despite the moratorium which still remains in force, is consistent with the hypothesis of depensatory population dynamics at low population sizes, as opposed to the compensation estimated by the conventional regression methods used in classic bioeconomic models. Depto. de Economía Financiera y Actuarial y Estadística Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales FALSE unpub 2023-06-19T23:53:30Z 2023-06-19T23:53:30Z 2013 technical report https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/41509 XXXX-XXXX eng open access application/pdf