2026-06-27T12:26:20Zhttps://docta.ucm.es/rest/oai/request

oai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/490032023-11-14T07:17:43Zcom_20.500.14352_14col_20.500.14352_17

Chang, Chia-Lin Franses, Philip Hans McAleer, Michael 2023-06-20T09:13:10Z 2023-06-20T09:13:10Z 2011-04 https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/49003 https://www.ucm.es/icae Macroeconomic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is based only on an econometric model is replicable and may be unbiased, whereas a forecast that is not based only on an econometric model, but also incorporates expert intuition, is non-replicable and is typically biased. In this paper we propose a methodology to analyze the qualities of individual and means of non-replicable forecasts. One part of the methodology seeks to retrieve a replicable component from the non-replicable forecasts, and compares this component against the actual data. A second part modifies the estimation routine due to the assumption that the difference between a replicable and a non-replicable forecast involves measurement error. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the methodological approach using both individuals and mean forecasts. eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/ open access Atribución-NoComercial 3.0 España Evaluating Individual and Mean Non-Replicable Forecasts technical report