2026-06-27T23:02:14Zhttps://docta.ucm.es/rest/oai/requestoai:docta.ucm.es:20.500.14352/70472023-08-05T21:39:25Zcom_20.500.14352_14col_20.500.14352_15
Docta Complutense
author
Álvarez Mon, Melchor
author
Ortega, Miguel A.
author
Gasulla, Óscar
author
Fortuny Profitós, Jordi
author
Mazaira Font, Ferran A.
author
Saurina, Pablo
author
Monserrat, Jorge
author
Plana, María N.
author
Troncoso, Daniel
author
Sanz Moreno, José
author
Muñoz, Benjamin
author
Arranz, Alberto
author
Varona, Jose F.
author
Lopez Escobar, Alejandro
author
Asúnsolo del Barco, Angel
2023-06-17T08:25:11Z
2023-06-17T08:25:11Z
2021
2075-4426
10.3390/jpm11010036
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/7047
https://doi.org/10.3390/jpm11010036
https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4426/11/1/36/htm
This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February–June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5–20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU–death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.
eng
Atribución 3.0 España
A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19
journal article
URL
https://docta.ucm.es/bitstreams/d6574c7f-365f-4cdd-b01a-604cf03c3d71/download
File
MD5
763237d5302e53b2fce9ed5ffc314347
1005701
application/pdf
jpm-11-00036-v2.pdf