Andrade, Jorge LuisValencia Delfa, José Luis2026-01-222026-01-222023Andrade, J.L.; Valencia, J.L. A Fuzzy Random Survival Forest for Predicting Lapses in Insurance Portfolios Containing Imprecise Data. Mathematics 2023, 11, 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/math1101019810.3390/MATH11010198https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/130808We propose a fuzzy random survival forest (FRSF) to model lapse rates in a life insurance portfolio containing imprecise or incomplete data such as missing, outlier, or noisy values. Following the random forest methodology, the FRSF is proposed as a new machine learning technique for solving time-to-event data using an ensemble of multiple fuzzy survival trees. In the learning process, the combination of methods such as the c-index, fuzzy sets theory, and the ensemble of multiple trees enable the automatic handling of imprecise data. We analyse the results of several experiments and test them statistically; they show the FRSF’s robustness, verifying that its generalisation capacity is not reduced when modelling imprecise data. Furthermore, the results obtained using a real portfolio of a life insurance company demonstrate that the FRSF has a better performance in comparison with other state-of-the-art algorithms such as the traditional Cox model and other tree-based machine learning techniques such as the random survival forest.engAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/journal articlehttps://doi.org/10.3390/math11010198https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/11/1/198open access519.22-7368survival analysisfuzzy logiclapse ratesimprecise dataEstadística aplicadaSeguros5302.04 Estadística Económica5304.05 Seguros