Arriaga, O.Wawrzynkowski, P.Ibáñez, H.Muguerza, N.Díez, I.Pérez Ruzafa, Isabel MaríaGorostiaga, J. M.Quintano, E.Becerro, M. A.2025-06-172025-06-172023-09Arriaga, Wawrzynkowski, Ibáñez, Muguerza, Díez, Pérez-Ruzafa, Gorostiaga, Quintano, & Becerro. (2023). Short-term response of macroalgal communities to ocean warming in the Southern Bay of Biscay. Marine Environmental Research, 190. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.MARENVRES.2023.1060980141-113610.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106098https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/121426This work was supported by the DIVERSAT project (Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities RTI2018-098970-B-I00) and the Catalan Government BEG 2017SGR-378. The main author is financially supported by a Basque Government predoctoral grant (Reference N°: PRE_2022_2_0127).Climate change is causing significant shifts in biological communities worldwide, including the degradation of marine communities. Previous research has predicted that southern Bay of Biscay canopy-forming subtidal macroalgal communities will shift into turf-forming Mediterranean-like communities by the end of the century. These predictions were based on a community-environment relationship model that used macroalgal abundance data and IPCC environmental projections. We have tested the short-term accuracy of that model by resampling the same communities and locations four years later and found the short-term predictions to be consistent with the observed communities. Changes in sea surface temperature were positively correlated with changes in the Community Temperature Index, suggesting that macroalgal communities had responded quickly to global warming. The changes over four years were significant, but canopy-forming macroalgae were more resilient in local sites with favourable temperature conditions. Our study demonstrated that updating predictive models with new data has the potential to yield reliable predictions and inform effective conservation strategies.engAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/journal article1879-0291https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106098https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014111362300226X?via%3Dihubopen access574.5582.26/.27(46)551.583Climate changeTemperatureMacroalgaeCommunity temperature index (CTI)CanopySubtidalIberian PeninsulaMonitoringBotánica (Biología)Biología marinaMeteorología (Geografía)Ecología (Biología)2417 Biología Vegetal (Botánica)2417.05 Biología Marina2510.04 Botánica Marina2417.07 Algología (Ficología)2502 Climatología2417.13 Ecología Vegetal