Suárez , Mauricio2024-02-052024-02-052018Suárez, Mauricio. 2018. "The Chances of Propensities". British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 69 (4), pp. 1155-1177.0007-088210.1093/bjps/axx010https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/98755Research towards this article was funded by the European Commission (Marie-Curie project number 329430, call identifier FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IEF: https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/329430) and the Spanish Government (DGCyT project number FFI2014-57064-P), and was conducted within the framework of the ProbPropCond (probpropcond.blogs.sas.ac.uk) research project that I directed while employed at the University of London (School of Advanced Study) during the 2013–14 and 2014–15 academic years. I thank the participants at the regular meetings and seminars, particularly Dorothy Edgington, Hugh Mellor, and Luke Glynn, for their comments, as well as the participants in the final workshop entitled ‘Propensities, Chances and Statistics’. Thanks also to audiences at the BSPS 2014 and 2015 conferences, and the EPSA2015 conferences for reactions to related material.This article argues that if propensities are displayed in objective physical chances, then the appropriate representation of these chances is as indexed probability functions. Two alternative formal models or accounts for the relation between propensity properties and their chancy or probabilistic manifestations, in terms of conditionals and conditional probability, are first reviewed. It is argued that both confront important objections, which are overcome by the account in terms of indexed probabilities. A number of furthera dvantages of the indexed probability account are discussed, which suggest that it is promising as a general theory of objective physical chance. The article ends with a discussion of the indexical character of the objective chances that are grounded in propensitiesengAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/journal article1464-3537https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axx010open access519.21Philosophy of probabilityChanceMetaphysicsFilosofía de la Ciencia7205 Filosofía de la Ciencia