Polvani, L. M.Wang, L.Ábalos Álvarez, MartaButchart, N.Chipperfield, M. P.Dameris, M.Deushi, M.Dhomse, S. S.Jöckel, P.Stone, K. A.2024-09-192024-09-192019-07-02Polvani, L. M., Wang, L., Abalos, M., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., et al. (2019). Large impacts, past and future, of ozone-depleting substances on Brewer-Dobson circulation trends: A multimodel assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 6669–6680. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD0295162169-897X10.1029/2018jd029516https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/108238Atraccion de Talento de la Comunidad de Madrid (2016-T2/AMB-1405) Project STEADY (CGL2017-83198-R) Artículo firmado por 15 autores.Substantial increases in the atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases (notably CO_(2)), such as those projected to occur by the end of the 21st century under large radiative forcing scenarios, have long been known to cause an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in climate models. More recently, however, several single-model studies have proposed that ozone-depleting substances might also be important drivers of BDC trends. As these studies were conducted with different forcings over different periods, it is difficult to combine them to obtain a robust quantitative picture of the relative importance of ozone-depleting substances as drivers of BDC trends. To this end, we here analyze—over identical past and future periods—the output from 20 similarly forced models, gathered from two recent chemistry-climate modeling intercomparison projects. Our multimodel analysis reveals that ozone-depleting substances are responsible for more than half of the modeled BDC trends in the two decades 1980–2000.We also find that, as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, decreasing concentrations of ozone-depleting substances in coming decades will strongly decelerate the BDC until the year 2080, reducing the age-of-air trends by more than half, and will thus substantially mitigate the impact of increasing CO_(2). As ozone-depleting substances impact BDC trends, primarily, via the depletion/recovery of stratospheric ozone over the South Pole, they impart seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries to the trends which may offer opportunities for detection in coming decades.engAttribution 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/journal article2169-8996https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029516https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018JD029516open access551.51Brewer-Dobson circulationOzone-depleting substancesAge of airStratospheric circulationChemistry-climate modelsFísica atmosférica2501 Ciencias de la Atmósfera