Escudero Palencia, LucíaZollo, AldoMattesini, MaurizioRae, RaffaeleElia, LucaColombelli, SimonaBuforn Peiró, Vicenta María Elisa2026-02-042026-02-042025-11-01Escudero, L., A. Zollo, M. Mattesini, R. Rea, L. Elia, S. Colombelli, and E. Buforn (2025). Performance of an Impact-Based Earthquake Early Warning System in the Alboran Sea, Seismol. Res. Lett. 96, 3063–3075, doi: 10.1785/0220240474.0895-069510.1785/0220240474https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/131500© Seismological Society of America; Programa PON‐AIM1834927This article presents the implementation and testing of a new P-wave shaking-forecastbased earthquake early warning system (EEWS) at the Ibero-Maghrebian region (IMR). The method integrates peak ground velocity (PGV) predictions derived from observed P-wave amplitudes with region-specific ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to facilitate real-time mapping of the potential damage zone. We determined empirical relationships between PGV and P-wave peak amplitudes (in acceleration, velocity, and displacement) and magnitude, along with the development of a GMPE for Mw >= 4 earthquakes in the IMR. These relationships are validated in the EEWS application using data from the 2016 Alboran Sea seismic series (Mw 5.0-6.4), which showed minimal discrepancies in origin time, epicenter location, and magnitude estimates compared to previous studies. A retrospective performance analysis for the Mw 6.4 mainshock indicated lead times of 14-62 sat a PGV threshold of 0.20 cm/s, with lead times increasing with distance. At a higher threshold of 0.60 cm/s, the lead time was 20 s for distances up to 170 km. The accuracy of impact predictions improved overtime, with successful alerts rising from 72% to 90% as the final predictions were made. Despite some limitations due to focusing on moderate-magnitude earthquakes (Mw <= 6:4), the EEWS method has proven effective for offshore events in areas with sparse instrumentation.engjournal article1938-2057https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240474https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/96/5/3063/653700/Performance-of-an-Impact-Based-Earthquake-Earlyembargoed access550.3Ground-motionIntensitySismología (Física)2507 Geofísica