Sosvilla-Rivero, SimónRamos-Herrera, María del Carmen2023-06-192023-06-192014BIS (2010) Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Activity in April 2010: Preliminary Results, Bank for International Settlements, Basilea. Available at http://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx10.pdf Frankel, J. A. and Froot, K. A. (1987a) Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations, American Economic Review, 77, 133-153. Frankel, J. A. and Froot, K. A. (1987b) Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1, 249-274. Frenkel, M. and Rülke, J.-C. (2011) “Twisting the dollar? On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations, forthcoming in Journal of Forecasting. Froot, K.A. and Ito, T. (1989) On the consistency of the short and long run exchange rate expectations, Journal of International Money and Finance, 8, 487–510. Pindyck, R. S. and Rubinfeld, D. L. (1998) Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th edition, New York: McGraw-Hill.https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/41676We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.Examinamos la capacidad predictiva y las propiedades de consistencia de las expectativas del tipo de cambio para el dólar/euro usando una encuesta a un panel de expertos y empresarios realizada en España por PwC. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el panel de PwC tiene alguna capacidad predictiva para los horizontes temporales desde 3 a 9 meses, aunque sólo para las expectativas a 3 meses se obtiene evidencia marginal de insesgadez y eficiencia en las predicciones. En cuanto a las propiedades de la consistencia del proceso de formación de las expectativas del tipo de cambio, nos encontramos con que los participantes de la encuesta forman sus expectativas de forma estabilizadoras en el corto plazo y desestabilizadoras en el largo plazo.engAtribución-NoComercial 3.0 Españatechnical reporthttps://www.ucm.es/icei/working-papersopen accessExchange ratesForecastingExpectationsPanel dataEconometric modelsTipos de CambiosPredicciónExpectativasDatos de PanelModelos EconométricosDineroEconometría (Economía)5304.06 Dinero y Operaciones Bancarias5302 Econometría