Nuño De La Rosa García, LauraVillegas Cerredo, Cristina2024-05-202024-05-202022de la Rosa, L.N. y Villegas, C. (2022) «Chances and Propensities in Evo-Devo», British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 73(2), pp. 509-533. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1093/BJPS/AXZ048.0007-088210.1093/bjps/axz048https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/104212Este trabajo fue financiado mediante dos becas Juan de la Cierva (FJCI-2014-22685 e IJCI-2017-34092) y una beca postdoctoral en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Laura Nuño de la Rosa) y mediante contrato predoctoral (BES-2015-072779) en la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Cristina Villegas).While the notion of chance has been central in discussions over the probabilistic nature of natural selection and genetic drift, its role in the production of variants on which populational sampling takes place has received much less philosophical attention. This article discusses the concept of chance in evolution in the light of contemporary work in evo-devo. We distinguish different levels at which randomness and chance can be defined in this context, and argue that recent research on variability and evolvability demands a causal understanding of variational probabilities under which development acquires a creative, rather than a constraining role in evolution. We then provide a propensity interpretation of variational probabilities that solves a conceptual confusion between causal properties, variational probabilities and extant variation present in the literature, and explore some metaphysical consequences that follow from our interpretation, specifically with regards to the nature of developmental types.engAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internationalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/journal article1464-3537https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axz048https://produccioncientifica.ucm.es/documentos/656c71df29159508cf238cefhttps://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/bjps/axz048open access001.1Evo-devoFilosofía de la Ciencia7205 Filosofía de la Ciencia