Person: Monjo Agut, Robert
Loading...
First Name
Robert
Last Name
Monjo Agut
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Ciencias Matemáticas
Department
Álgebra, Geometría y Topología
Area
Geometría y Topología
Identifiers
2 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Item Estimation of future extreme rainfall in Barcelona (Spain) under monofractal hypothesis(International Journal of Climatology, 2023) Monjo Agut, Robert; Locatelli, Luca; Milligan, John; Torres, Luis; Velasco, Marc; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Redolat, Darío; Russo, Beniamino; Ribalaygua, JaimeClimate change effects on subdaily rainfall (from 5 min to a few hours) can hardly be measured in mid-latitude climates due to the high natural variability of the precipitation patterns and their effects on local topography. The goal of this study was to obtain change projections of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves, for up to 2-h precipitation events, comparing two approaches that use the daily outputs of the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model projections: (a) direct scaling of the expected probable precipitation, from 2-year to 500-year return periods of daily rainfall and (b) a new semi-stochastic approach, built by combining the physically forced outputs of climate models (on a daily scale) and stochastic simulation given by the probability distribution of a concentration index (n-index) for individual rainfall events (on a subdaily scale). The approaches were applied to a set of 27 stations located around Barcelona, Spain, including a long reference series (with 5-min rainfall records since 1927), representing the highly variable Mediterranean climate. The validation process showed a systematic error (bias) generally smaller than 10%, especially for rainfall extreme events with durations of less than 2 h. The concentration n-index and IDF curves were projected by 10 downscaled CMIP5 climate models under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), obtaining a consensual increase in both relative concentration and absolute intensities in Barcelona. Ensemble projection of rainfall concentration (n-index) showed an increase up to 10% by 2071–2100 and about 20% (15%–30% range) for maximum intensities of 2-year to 500-year return periods. Results provide robustness in decision-making regarding the design of stormwater management infrastructure at a local scale.Item Effects of Climate Change on Water Quality in the Jucar River Basin (Spain)(Water, 2021) Gómez-Martínez, Gabriel; Galiano, Lorena; Rubio, Toni; Prado-López, Carlos; Redolat, darío; Paradinas Blázquez, César; Gaitán, Emma; Pedro-Monzonís, María; Ferriz-Sánchez, Sergio; Añó Soto, Miguel; Monjo Agut, Robert; Pérez-Martín, Miguel Ángel; Almenar Llorens, Pura; Macián Cervera, JavierThe Mediterranean region is a climate change hotspot, especially concerning issues of hydrological planning and urban water supply systems. In this context, the Jucar River Basin (Spain) presents an increase of frequency, intensity and duration of extreme meteorological phenomena, such as torrential rains, droughts or heat waves, which directly affect the quantity and quality of raw water available for drinking. This paper aims to analyze the effects of climate change on the raw water quality of the Jucar River Basin District, which mainly supplies the city of Valencia and its metropolitan area, in order to adapt drinking water treatments to new conditions and opportunities. For this purpose, we used observed data of water quality parameters from four stations and climate drivers from seven Earth system models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. To model water quality (turbidity and conductivity) in the past and future scenarios, this study employs a backward stepwise regression taking into account daily values of mean temperature, maximum temperature, total rainfall and minimum and maximum relative humidity. Results showed that the model performance of the water quality simulation is more adequate for short moving-average windows (about 2–7 days) for turbidity and longer windows (about 30–60 days) for conductivity. Concerning the future scenarios, the most significant change was found in the projected increase of conductivity for the station of the Júcar river, between 4 and 11% by 2100, respectively, under the medium (SSP2–4.5) and pessimistic (SSP5–8.5) emission scenarios. The joint use of these types of management and monitoring tools may help the managers in charge of carrying out the different water treatments needed to apply a better plan to raw water and may help them identify future threats and investment needs to adapt the urban water supply systems to the changing conditions of raw water, such as turbidity or conductivity, as a consequence of climate change.