Person:
Aguilar Vega, Cecilia

Profile Picture
First Name
Cecilia
Last Name
Aguilar Vega
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/84474
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Veterinaria
Department
Sanidad Animal
Area
Identifiers
UCM identifierScopus Author IDDialnet ID

Filters

2022 - 20242
Reset filters

Settings

Author: Jeong, Hyunkyu ×

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea
    (Viruses, 2022) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Jeong, Hyunkyu; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Park, Jonghoon; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
    Since the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R0) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R0 ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R0 ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Geospatial analysis for strategic wildlife disease surveillance: African swine fever in South Korea (2019–2021)
    (Plos One, 2024) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Jeong, Hyunkyu; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel
    Since the confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in South Korea in 2019, its spread, predominantly in wild boars, has been a significant concern. A key factor in this situation is the lack of identification of risk factors by surveillance bias. The unique orography, characterized by high mountains, complicates search efforts, leading to overlooked or delayed case detection and posing risks to the swine industry. Additionally, shared rivers with neighboring country present a continual threat of virus entry. This study employs geospatial analysis and statistical methods to 1) identify areas at high risk of ASF occurrence but possibly under-surveilled, and 2) indicate strategic surveillance points for monitoring the risk of ASF virus entry through water bodies and basin influences. Pearson’s rho test indicated that elevation (rho = -0.908, p-value < 0.001) and distance from roads (rho = -0.979, p-value < 0.001) may have a significant impact on limiting surveillance activities. A map of potential under-surveilled areas was created considering these results and was validated by a chi-square goodness-of-fit test (X-square = 208.03, df = 1, p-value < 0.001). The strong negative correlation (rho = -0.997, p-value <0.001) between ASF-positive wild boars and distance from water sources emphasizes that areas surrounding rivers are one of the priority areas for monitoring. The subsequent hydrological analyses provided important points for monitoring the risk of virus entry via water from the neighboring country. This research aims to facilitate early detection and prevent further spread of ASF.