Person: Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso
Loading...
First Name
Jaime Alfonso
Last Name
Bosch López
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Veterinaria
Department
Sanidad Animal
Area
Identifiers
11 results
Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 11
Item Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products(Research in Veterinary Science, 2023) Muñoz Pérez, Carolina; Martínez López, Beatriz; Gómez Vázquez, José Pablo; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Ito, Satoshi; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelAfrican swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world's leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10−4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model's outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.Item What can we learn from the five-year African swine fever epidemic in Asia?(Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2023) Ito, Satoshi; Kawaguchi, Nijiho; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelToday’s global swine industry is exposed to the unprecedented threat of African swine fever (ASF). Asia, the site of the most recent epidemics, could serve as a huge viral reservoir for the rest of the world given the severity of the damage, the huge swine industry, and the high volume of trade with other countries around the world. As the majority of ASF notifications in Asia today originate from pig farms, the movement of live pigs and associated pork products are considered critical control points for disease management. Particularly, small-scale or backyard farms with low biosecurity levels are considered major risk factors. Meanwhile, wild boars account for most notified cases in some countries and regions, which makes the epidemiological scenario different from that in other Asian countries. As such, the current epidemic situation and higher risk factors differ widely between these countries. A variety of studies on ASF control have been conducted and many valuable insights have been obtained in Asia; nevertheless, the overall picture of the epidemic is still unclear. The purpose of this review is to provide an accurate picture of the epidemic situation across Asia, focusing on each subregion to comprehensively explain the disease outbreak. The knowledge gained from the ASF epidemics experienced in Asia over the past 5 years would be useful for disease control in areas that are already infected, such as Europe, as well as for non-affected areas to address preventive measures. To this end, the review includes two aspects: a descriptive analytical review based on publicly available databases showing overall epidemic trends, and an individualized review at the subregional level based on the available literature.Item Epidemiological impacts of attenuated African swine fever virus circulating in wild boar populations(Research in veternary science, 2023) Martínez Avilés, Marta; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Ivorra, Benjamín Pierre Paul; Ramos Del Olmo, Ángel Manuel; Ito, Satoshi; Barasona García-Arévalo, José Ángel; Sánchez-Vicario, José ManuelAfrican swine fever virus (ASFV) genotype II has been present in wild boar in the European Union since 2014. Control measures have reduced the incidence of the ASF, but highly virulent as well as attenuated ASFV strains continue to circulate. We present the intraherd epidemiological parameters of low and highly virulent ASFV in wild boar from experimental data, and for the first time, evaluate the impact of attenuated strain circulation through unique deterministic compartmental model simulations under various potential scenarios and hypotheses. Using an estimated PCR infectious threshold of TPCR = 36.4, we obtained several transmission parameters, like an Rx (experimental intraherd R0) value of 4.5. We also introduce two novel epidemiological parameters: infectious power and resistance power, which indicate the ability of animals to transmit the infection and the reduction in infectiousness after successive exposures to varying virulence strains, respectively. The presence of ASFV attenuated strains results in 4–17% of animals either remaining in a carrier state or becoming susceptible again when exposed to highly virulent ASFV for more than two years. The timing between exposures to viruses of different virulence also influences the percentage of animals that die or remain susceptible. The findings of this study can be utilized in epidemiological modelling and provide insight into important risk situations that should be considered for surveillance and future potential ASF vaccination strategies in wild boar.Item Role of Wild Boar in the Spread of Classical Swine Fever in Japan(Pathogens, 2019) Ito, Satoshi; Jurado Díaz, Cristina; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Ito, Mitsugi; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel; Isoda, Norikazu; Sakoda, YoshihiroSince September 2018, nearly 900 notifications of classical swine fever (CSF) have been reported in Gifu Prefecture (Japan) affecting domestic pig and wild boar by the end of August 2019. To determine the epidemiological characteristics of its spread, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed using actual field data on the current epidemic. The spatial study, based on standard deviational ellipses of official CSF notifications, showed that the disease likely spread to the northeast part of the prefecture. A maximum significant spatial association estimated between CSF notifications was 23 km by the multi-distance spatial cluster analysis. A space-time permutation analysis identified two significant clusters with an approximate radius of 12 and 20 km and 124 and 98 days of duration, respectively. When the area of the identified clusters was overlaid on a map of habitat quality, approximately 82% and 75% of CSF notifications, respectively, were found in areas with potential contact between pigs and wild boar. The obtained results provide information on the current CSF epidemic, which is mainly driven by wild boar cases with sporadic outbreaks on domestic pig farms. These findings will help implement control measures in Gifu Prefecture.Item Application of machine learning with large-scale data for an effective vaccination against classical swine fever for wild boar in Japan(Scientific Reports, 2024) Ito, Satoshi; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Isoda, Norikazu; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelClassical swine fever has been spreading across the country since its re-emergence in Japan in 2018. Gifu Prefecture has been working diligently to control the disease through the oral vaccine dissemination targeting wild boars. Although vaccines were sprayed at 14,000 locations between 2019 and 2020, vaccine ingestion by wild boars was only confirmed at 30% of the locations. Here, we predicted the vaccine ingestion rate at each point by Random Forest modeling based on vaccine dissemination data and created prediction surfaces for the probability of vaccine ingestion by wild boar using spatial interpolation techniques. Consequently, the distance from the vaccination point to the water source was the most important variable, followed by elevation, season, road density, and slope. The area under the curve, model accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for model evaluation were 0.760, 0.678, 0.661, and 0.685, respectively. Areas with high probability of wild boar vaccination were predicted in northern, eastern, and western part of Gifu. Leave-One-Out Cross Validation results showed that Kriging approach was more accurate than the Inverse distance weighting method. We emphasize that effective vaccination strategies based on epidemiological data are essential for disease control and that our proposed tool is also applicable for other wildlife diseases.Item African Swine Fever Survey in a European Context(Pathogens, 2022) de la Torre, Ana; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel; Ito, Satoshi; Muñoz Pérez, Carolina; Iglesias, Irene; Martínez Avilés, MartaAfrican swine fever (ASF) is currently the most threatening disease for domestic and wild pigs worldwide. Wild boar has been the main affected species in all EU countries except for Romania, where most notifications occur in domestic pigs. The spread of ASF in wild boar is challenging to control; risk factors are harder to identify and establish than in domestic pigs, which, together with an underestimation of the disease and the lack of treatment or an effective vaccine, are hindering control and eradication efforts. We distributed two online questionnaires, one for domestic pigs and one for wild boar, to experts of different background and countries in Europe, to explore risk factors in relation to ASF control connected to farming, hunting, trade, the environment, and domestic pig and wild boar populations. Overall, wild boar movements were estimated to pose the highest risk of ASF introduction and spread. The movement of pork and pork products for own consumption also ranked high. Here we explored, in addition to the assessment of risk pathways, the identification of risks of transmission at the domestic/wild boar interface, the importance of biosecurity practices and improved control efforts, and controversial opinions that require further attention.Item Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea(Viruses, 2022) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Jeong, Hyunkyu; Aguilar Vega, Cecilia; Park, Jonghoon; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelSince the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R0) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R0 ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R0 ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.Item Editorial: Epidemiology of the transboundary swine diseases in Asia & Pacific(Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2024) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Norikazu Isoda; Lam Thanh Nguyen; Martinez Aviles, MartaSe aborda el problema de las enfermedades infecciosas porcinas en los países asiáticos, líderes en el mercado porcino, las cuales suponen un riesgo para toda la cadena de valor. Se menciona la peste porcina africana (ASF, por sus siglas en inglés) y algunos casos en Vietnam y Laos, junto a los factores de riesgo, las medidas de bioseguridad y el tiempo entre infección y detección. Asimismo, se menciona la aparición del Deltacoronavirus porcino (PDCov, por sus siglas en inglés) en China y se recomiendan medidas de control para la prevención de una posible expansión global.Item Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Exposure to Sus scrofa in Japan Via Pork Products Brought in Air Passengers’ Luggage(Pathogens, 2020) Ito, Satoshi; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Jurado Díaz, Cristina; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José Manuel; Isoda, NorikazuIn recent years, African swine fever (ASF) has become prevalent in many areas, including Asia. The repeated detection of the ASF virus (ASFV) genome in pork products brought in air passenger’s luggage (PPAP) was also reported from Japanese airports. In the present study, the risk of ASFV exposure to susceptible hosts in Japan via three different pathways was assessed. Two quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were built to estimate the annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs, which could be attributed to foreign job trainees or foreign tourists. A semi-quantitative stochastic model was built to assess the risk of ASFV exposure to wild boar caused by foreign tourists. The overall mean annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs via PPAP carried by foreign job trainees was 0.169 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.000–0.600], whereas that by foreign tourists was 0.050 [95% CI: 0.000–0.214], corresponding to approximately one introduction every 5.9 and 20 years, respectively. The risk of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs was dispersed over the country, whereas that of wild boar was generally higher in the western part of Japan, indicating that the characteristics of the potential ASF risk in each prefecture were varied.Item Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs(Pathogens, 2022) Muñoz Pérez, Carolina; Bosch López, Jaime Alfonso; Ito, Satoshi; Martínez Avilés, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez, José ManuelAfrican swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.