Person: Pozo Piñol, Pilar
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Pilar
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Pozo Piñol
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
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Item Evaluation of Risk Factors Associated With Herds With an Increased Duration of Bovine Tuberculosis Breakdowns in Castilla y Leon, Spain (2010–2017)(Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 2020) Pozo Piñol, Pilar; Romero Martínez, Beatriz; Bezos Garrido, Javier; Grau, Anna; Nácar, Jesús; Sáez-Lorente, José Luis; Mínguez, Olga; Álvarez Sánchez, JulioThe persistence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in certain cattle herds is a major concern in countries pursuing disease eradication worldwide. The chronic nature of the disease, the lack of performance of diagnostic tools, and the presence of wildlife reservoirs may lead infected herds to require longer periods to achieve the officially tuberculosis-free (OTF) status. Here, we evaluated the impact of farm and breakdown characteristics on the probability of disease persistence in infected farms in Castilla y Leon, a bTB-endemic region of Spain, using survival and logistic regression models. Data from bTB breakdowns occurring in 3,550 bTB-positive herds detected in 2010–2017 were analyzed. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was fitted using time to recover OTF status as the response variable, and a multivariable logistic regression model using the chronic status (yes/no) for herds experiencing particularly long breakdowns as the outcome variable was also used. Both analyses revealed that county-level bTB herd prevalence, herd size, number of incoming animals in the previous 3 years, number of skin test reactors in the disclosing test, and number of days between the disclosing and follow-up tests were associated with increased breakdown duration. Production type was not consistently associated with chronic infection, suggesting that once infected, it is not a significant predictor of outbreak duration beyond the initial stages of the breakdown. Province-level location and number of animals that are bacteriology-positive also affected significantly the expected herd breakdown duration, but their effect became less significant over time. Risk factors identified in this study may help to identify herds more prone to suffer chronic bTB infection that may require additional control measures early on in a breakdown.Item Assessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling(Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2019) De la Cruz, María Luisa; Pozo Piñol, Pilar; Grau, Anna; Nacar, Jesús; Bezos Garrido, Javier; Pérez, Andrés; Domínguez Rodríguez, Lucas José; Sáez, José Luís; Mínguez-González, Olga; Juan Ferré, Lucía De; Álvarez Sánchez, JulioIn spite of the efforts invested to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, the disease is still present in several developed countries, including Spain. Among the factors related with disease persistence in high prevalence areas, the lack of sensitivity of the screening test for detection of infected herds [single intradermal tuberculin (SIT) test] can play a major role. Here, a scenario tree model mimicking the diagnostic test scheme in place in the region of Castilla y Leon (Spain) was developed to estimate the probability of detecting bTB in an infected-non detected officially tuberculosis free (OTF) herd (herd sensitivity, HSe). In order to do so the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in the SIT test with/without post-mortem (detection of lesions and culture) confirmation in an infected herd was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation through @ RISK (Palisade Co, NY, USA). Uncertainty on the accuracy of the diagnostic tests was introduced in the model using distributions based on the literature. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the predicted number of SIT/post-mortem positive animals in infected herds with those observed in newly detected bTB-infected herds in the region in 2011–2015. The estimated HSe of the SIT test was 76.2% (95% probability interval: 19.8–97.6). According to the model, bTB infection would be then confirmed through culture in 65.3% (95% PI: 50.0–82.3) of the herds detected through the SIT test, so that overall the proportion of infected-non detected OTF herds in which the infection could be confirmed after the initial SIT test was 49.6% (95% PI: 9.75–80.3). The predicted HSe of both SIT test and culture was directly correlated with herd size. Results from the model suggest a moderate but highly variable HSe of the current surveillance system in place for bTB detection in OTF herds located in high prevalence areas, that could be maximized by performing multiple tests within a year as indicated in the Spanish eradication program (with a median SIT HSe of 87% when two consecutive tests were considered). In addition, these results highlight the usefulness of performing subsequent SIT tests to rule out infection in SIT-positive herds even when the causative agent cannot be isolated.Item Analysis of the cattle movement network and its association with the risk of bovine tuberculosis at the farm level in Castilla y Leon, Spain(Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2019) Pozo Piñol, Pilar; Bezos Garrido, Javier; Álvarez Sánchez, Julio; VanderWaal, Kimberly; Grau, Anna; de la Cruz Conty, María Luisa; Nácar, Jesus; Pérez, Andrés; Mínguez, OlgaBetween-farm transmission of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) occurs mostly through fence-to-fence contact between neighbouring farms, endemic infected wildlife or movement of infected animals. Unfortunately, bTB detection is frequently delayed and identification of the source of introduction is often difficult, particularly in endemic regions. Here, we characterized the cattle movement network of Castilla y Leon, a high bTB-prevalence (1.9% at the farm level in 2015) region in Spain, over six years and analysed the distribution of bTB to ultimately assess the likelihood of spatial and movement-mediated transmission. We analysed movement and bTB data from 27,633 units located in the region, of which 87% were involved in ~1.4 million movements of ~8.8 million animals. Network-level connectivity was low, although a few highly connected units were identified. Up to 15% of the herds became bTB-positive at some point during the study, with the highest percentage found in bullfighting and beef herds. Although bTB-positive herds had a significantly higher degree and moved more cattle than negative herds. Results of the k-test, a permutation-based procedure, suggested that positive farms were not significantly clustered in the movement network. Location was a likely risk factor as bTB-positive farms tended to be located within 5 km from each other. Results suggested that movements may be a source of bTB in cattle in Castilla y Leon, although local factors may be more influential in determining risk of disease at the farm level. The description of the movement network in Castilla y Leon may be valuable for bTB surveillance in Spain. Moreover, results are useful to assess the movement-associated risk for multiple diseases.Item Evaluation of the performance of slaughterhouse surveillance for bovine tuberculosis detection in Castilla y Leon, Spain(Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2021) Pozo Piñol, Pilar; Cardenas, Nicolas Cespedes; Bezos Garrido, Javier; Romero Martínez, Beatriz; Grau, Anna; Nacar, Jesus; Saez, Jose Luis; Minguez, Olga; Álvarez Sánchez, JulioPost-mortem inspection (PMI) of routinely slaughtered cattle in abattoirs is an extremely valuable tool for detecting bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infected herds that can supplement active surveillance activities. However, its true performance is difficult to assess due to the multiple factors that may affect it. Here, we determined relative efficiencies in the detection of bTB-compatible lesions and probabilities of subsequent laboratory confirmation of abattoirs located in Castilla y Leon, one of the regions with the largest cattle population in Spain, between 2010 and 2017. The slaughtered animal population was split based on the results of the ante-mortem tests (reactors or non-reactors), and two generalized linear multivariable mixed models were fitted to each subpopulation to calculate the risk of lesion detection and laboratory confirmation per abattoir while accounting for the effect of potential confounding variables. Throughout the 8-year period, ~30,000 reactors and >2.8 million non-reactor animals in the ante-mortem tests were culled in the abattoirs under study. Bovine TB compatible lesions were detected in 4,710 (16%) reactors and 828 (0.03%) non-reactor animals, of which >95% were confirmed as infected through bacteriology. The probability of disclosure of bTB-like lesions was associated with the animal subpopulation, type of source unit, the herd size, the year of slaughter, the breed and age of the animal, and/or the season of slaughter. The probabilities of detection of bTB-like lesions varied largely depending on the abattoir in both subpopulations, ranging from 603 to 3,070 per 10,000 animals for the reactors and 0.2–16.1 per 10,000 animals for the nonreactor animals. Results obtained here will help to quantify the performance of PMI in abattoirs in Castilla y Leon and the between-abattoir variability, and to identify animals at increased risk of having bTB-like lesions detected during PMI based on animal- and farm-related factors.Item Once bitten twice shy: Risk factors associated with bovine tuberculosis recurrence in Castilla y Leon, Spain(Research in Veterinary Science, 2023) Pozo Piñol, Pilar; Bezos Garrido, Javier; Romero Martínez, Beatriz; Grau, Anna; Nacar, Jesus; Saez, Jose Luis; Minguez, Olga; Álvarez Sánchez, JulioPersistence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle herd remains a major challenge in disease elimination due to the ineffectual removal of all infected animals in a bTB breakdown. Characterization of herds with a higher probability of experiencing further bTB breakdowns can help to implement specific risk-based policies for disease control and eradication. Here, our aim was to identify herd- and breakdown-level risk factors in bTB infected herds in Castilla y Leon, Spain, associated with a decreased time to recurrence and an increased risk of recurrence using a mixed effects Cox proportional hazards model and a multivariable logistic regression model, respectively. Results revealed that location (province), herd size and number of incoming animals/contacts were good predictors of a decreased time to bTB recurrence and an increased risk of becoming a recurrent herd. Additionally, the duration of the previous outbreak and the number of IFN-γ herd-tests applied in it were associated with increased odds of (an early) recurrence. Risk factors identified here can be used for early identification of herds in which bTB eradication may be more challenging and that should thus be subjected to increased control efforts. The characterization of high-risk herds may help to minimize the risk of reinfection and emphasize early detection and removal of bTB positive animals in the herd.Item Farm management practices and host species richness associated with higher likelihood of tuberculosis positive farms in Western Spain(European Journal of Wildlife Research, 2024) Herrero García, Gloria; Vaz Rodrigues, Rita; Pozo Piñol, Pilar; Barroso, Patricia; Relimpio, David; Nácar, Jesús; Grau, Anna; Mínguez, Olga; García Rodríguez, Alberto; Balseiro, Ana; Gortázar, ChristianDespite enormous efforts, complete animal tuberculosis (TB) eradication has only been achieved in few regions. Epidemiological analyses are key to identify TB risk factors and set up targeted biosecurity measures. Here, we conducted an in-depth characterization of 84 extensive beef cattle farms from a high TB prevalence region in Western Spain, and assessed how farm management and wildlife presence on farms contribute to cattle TB risk. Twenty-six out of 84 variables were associated with cattle farm TB positivity. Farm management variables associated with TB positivity included older cattle, larger herd size, highly fragmented farm structure and greater connectivity between farms. TB-positive farms provided supplemental feed over a higher number of months, used calf feeders, and had higher number of waterholes. Detecting Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), red fox (Vulpes vulpes), European badger (Meles meles), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), or Egyptian mongoose (Herpestes ichneumon) on cattle farms was also associated with farm TB positivity. The best ordinal regression model indicated that in farms with a large herd size (> 167 animals) the odds of being positive or recurrently positive (versus negative) was 7.34 (95% CI = 2.43–23.51) times higher that of farms with small herd size. Further, for every additional host species detected in the farm premises, the odds of being TB-positive increased 56%. We conclude that both cattle management and wildlife need to be targeted for successful TB control in grazing-based farming systems.