Person:
López Herrero, María Jesús

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First Name
María Jesús
Last Name
López Herrero
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14352/77420
Affiliation
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Faculty / Institute
Estudios estadísticos
Department
Estadística y Ciencia de los Datos
Area
Estadística e Investigación Operativa
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2012 - 20133
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Author: Artalejo Rodríguez, Jesús Manuel × Subject: 519.2 ×

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Stochastic epidemic models with random environment: quasi-stationarity, extinction and final size
    (Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2013) Artalejo Rodríguez, Jesús Manuel; Economou, A.; López Herrero, María Jesús
    We investigate stochastic and epidemic models, when there is a random environment that influences the spread of the infectious disease. The inclusion of an external environment into the epidemic model is done by replacing the constant transmission rates with dynamic rates governed by an environmental Markov chain. We put emphasis on the algorithmic evaluation of the influence of the environmental factors on the performance behavior of the epidemic model.
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    Stochastic epidemic models revisited: analysis of some continuous performance measures
    (Journal of biological dynamics, 2012) Artalejo Rodríguez, Jesús Manuel; Economou, A.; López Herrero, María Jesús
    We deal with stochastic epidemic models having a set of absorbing states. The aim of the paper is to study some continuous characteristics of the epidemic. In this sense, we first extend the classical study of the length of an outbreak by investigating the whole probability distribution of the extinction time via Laplace transforms. Moreover, we also study two almost new epidemic descriptors, namely, the time until a non-infected individual becomes infected and the time until the individual is removed from the infective group. The obtained results are illustrated by numerical examples including an application to a stochastic SIS model for head lice infections.
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    On the exact measure of disease spread in stochastic epidemic models
    (Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2013) Artalejo Rodríguez, Jesús Manuel; López Herrero, María Jesús
    The basic reproduction number, R (0), is probably the most important quantity in epidemiology. It is used to measure the transmission potential during the initial phase of an epidemic. In this paper, we are specifically concerned with the quantification of the spread of a disease modeled by a Markov chain. Due to the occurrence of repeated contacts taking place between a typical infective individual and other individuals already infected before, R (0) overestimates the average number of secondary infections. We present two alternative measures, namely, the exact reproduction number, R (e0), and the population transmission number, R (p) , that overcome this difficulty and provide valuable insight. The applicability of R (e0) and R (p) to control of disease spread is also examined.